Malcolm Robinson

BTW, that SPV Trichet is talking about reminds me of something............... And if I remember correctly they drove them backwards!!!!!!!!!

The Euro looks to be tanking against the dollar but for that very reason we might well see a rebound? Historically when a currency tanks like this and almost everyone is of the opinion it is a one way bet something strange happens and the opposite becomes true. I have read two strategists thinking along these lines in the last couple of days. It was a bit galling to see the French finance minister, Christine Lagarde, on TV saying her plan to save the Euro has worked? We then saw a steady downwards movement, when will these people learn! The Euro probably needs some relief from the highs it was worth to help with international competitiveness so a slight run would actually be helpful. This E750B package announced to back the Euro is flawed if for no other reason than the SPV (more later!) doesn't as yet exist and so cannot trade at the moment. Seeing as this was the vehicle which is supposed to buy up to E450B of EMU debts I wonder if there is really any intent by the ECB to actually do what it says on the tin? The problems we saw in Germany over their E8B contribution, later revised up to E22B, will be as nothing because their contribution to this fund will be E120B! Can we really expect then to cough up willingly? The whole credibility of the ECB and Trichet has been compromised as far as I can see and the markets are giving their assessment. A final and intrinsic point to make is that to get these debts under control we hear about austerity measures but these could easily push economies out of recovery and into full blown recession. Having just read a report which predicts a 1% fall in spending by the likes of the Greek government could result in a 2.5% fall in economic output and if we then input the proposed figures of around a 10% reduction we can assume a fall of 25% of economic output! This is a very deep recession being talked about if care is not taken and we need to bear in mind out own position regarding debts/GDP!

West Bedlington Community Partnership Thursday 20th May 2010 6-30 – 8-30pm Venue: Bedlington Community Centre (Upstairs) AGENDA 1. Welcome & Introductions 2. Apologies 3. Minutes of the meeting held on: Thursday 25th February 2010-05-06 4. Matters Arising 5. SUSTRANS Connect 2 Cycle Route Introduction to the Community Artists: 'Aether & Hemera' 6. Update on the formation of a Community Development Trust for Bedlingtonshire Brian Oliver & Malcolm Robinson 7. Bedlington Market Place – Richard Schofield NCC 8. Police Report 9. Parish Council update 10. A.O.B

A man feared his wife wasn't hearing as well as she used to and he thought she might need a hearing aid. Not quite sure how to approach her, he called the family doctor to discuss the problem. The Doctor told him there is a simple informal test the husband could perform to give the doctor a better idea about her hearing loss. Here's what you do," said the Doctor, "stand about 40 feet away from her, and in a normal conversational speaking tone see if she hears you. If not, go to 30 feet, then 20 feet, and so on until you get a response." That evening, the wife is in the kitchen cooking dinner, and he was in the study. He says to himself, "I'm about 40 feet away, let's see what happens." Then in a normal tone he asks, 'Honey, what's for dinner?" No response.. So the husband moves closer to the kitchen, about 30 feet from his wife and repeats, "Honey, what's for dinner?" Still no response. Next he moves into the dining room where he is about 20 feet from his wife and asks, "Honey, what's for dinner?" Again no response. So, he walks up to the kitchen door, about 10 feet away.. "Honey, what's for dinner?" Again there is no response. So he walks right up behind her... "Honey, what's for dinner?" (I just love this) "Ralph, for THE FIFTH !*!@# TIME, CHICKEN!"

Stop Press: Al Qaeda on Strike. Muslim suicide bombers in Britain are set to begin a three-day strike on Monday in a dispute over the number of virgins they are entitled to in the afterlife. Emergency talks with Al Qaeda have so far failed to produce an agreement. The unrest began last Tuesday when Al Qaeda announced that the number of virgins a suicide bomber would receive after his death will be cut by 25% this February from 72 to only 54. The rationale for the cut was the increase in recent years of the number of suicide bombings and a subsequent shortage of virgins in the afterlife. The suicide bombers' union, the British Organization of Occupational Martyrs (or B.O.O.M.) responded with a statement that this was unacceptable to its members and immediately balloted for strike action. General Secretary Abdullah Amir told the press, "Our members are literally working themselves to death in the cause of Jihad. We don't ask for much in return but to be treated like this is like a kick in the teeth." Speaking from his shed in Tipton in the West Midlands in which he currently resides, Al Qaeda chief executive Osama bin Laden explained, "We sympathize with our workers' concerns but Al Qaeda is simply not in a position to meet their demands. They are simply not accepting the realities of modern-day Jihad in a competitive marketplace." "Thanks to Western depravity, there is now a chronic shortage of virgins in the afterlife. It's a straight choice between reducing expenditure and laying people off. I don't like cutting wages but I'd hate to have to tell 3000 of my staff that they won't be able to blow themselves up." Spokespersons for the union in the Northeast of England, Ireland , Wales and the entire Australian continent stated that the strike would not affect their operations as "There are no virgins in our areas anyway". Apparently the drop in the number of suicide bombings has been put down to the emergence of the Scottish singing star, Susan Boyle - now that Muslims know what a virgin looks like that they are not so keen on going to paradise.

Georgie Boy has just announced a new budgetary oversight office, about time! At last we might actually see the real position the country is in, if as has been stated it will publish all liabilities, including the off balance sheet stuff. Only then can we think about getting a real plan in place to redress our budget deficits!

Libor rates heading north, Futures heading south, Euro bombing against major currencies, gold hitting new highs and Trichet told a group of German financiers and economists last Saturday that he had told all the other EMU countries, and he has been proved right, to do something about their debt problems or they would be in trouble. He's a laddo isn't he!!!!!!!! Cosying up and in reality fawning over the paymasters of EMU, guess their fiscal debt position being higher than EMU convergence rates wasn't mentioned! It has taken him over 2 years to get on the same bus as the rest of the world, and the EU still hasn't got the mechanisms in place to deliver, and he's claiming to be correct?????? Flipping heck I think he went to the same economics seminars as Brown! If the markets keep going in their present directions expect some serious talk about either a split in the Euro or it's disappearance.

What those shining examples of a national democratic process? They are probably more realistically described as despots irrespective of their origins! No I would be talking about a hustings meeting where you could ask candidates for their views on subjects of concern nationally. I wouldn't want to hear and listen to party dogma and drivel by way of explanations. We have just seen exactly how much water that holds when power and influence is concerned, they cannot throw it away fast enough! I would be talking about MP's actually liaising with their respective constituents on a frequent basis so they knew the public mood and so could vote accordingly, they are after all only there to represent us. We seem to have lost that 'control', if we ever had it! The present system has just confined Wansbeck to the wilderness for another 5 years.

It is certainly an interesting philosophical quandary if nothing else. Who do you vote for in local elections and by elections? Should the Lib Dems and the Tories now field just one candidate as they have clearly shown their 'agreement' on a national manifesto? If they don't and by some strange chance of fate the Tories win every by election from now on and eventually hold a majority position in parliament will they throw their coalition aside? Will the more radical Tories now redouble their efforts in this matter to get rid of their Lib Dem partners? I think this whole issue has shown that we could get rid of the party system and instead elect people who we felt were capable of actually doing the job!

As the fallout from the Eurozone's shock and awe trillion dollar bailout becomes a bit clearer we see Spain and Portugal announcing their own deficit cutting measures. This is starting to look like punishment for letting their own sovereign debts get out of control and in some ways justifying the likes of 'prudent' Germany riding to the rescue. We also at this stage have to consider the whole bailout as a measure to 'save' Eurozone banks, however that is a slightly different take on this topic. Looking at the Spanish measures we see public sector pay cuts of around 5%, (government ministers take a 15% cut!) local and regional government spending cuts of around E1.2B and a E6B cut in public sector investment. Pensions are to be frozen, E6000M cut in the foreign aid and the abolition in 2011 of the E2500 child birth allowance. Coupled with already announced 'austerity' measures this is supposed to cut Spain's fiscal deficit to 6% of GDP by 2012 and she still insists she will hit the EMU target figure of 3% by 2013. On the face of it this does look a much more serious plan than that which Spain announced in February and which the markets have been testing of late. There is one other significant factor to consider and that is the political one. Jose Zapatero, Spain's Prime Minister, was re-elected in 2008 on promises of higher pensions, better welfare and full employment clearly the Spanish population will be feeling rightfully indignant especially as unemployment is now at 20%! Whilst these new measures do have merit by way of facing up to the Spanish deficit care will have to be applied so they themselves don't push Spain into a full blown recession! Portugal has announced her own 'extra 'measures to achieve a deficit figure this year of just over 7% of GDP. (We have to remember the size of the respective economies here so a E20B cut in one might equal a E5B cut in another.) There will be tax rises under the "crisis tax” banner and they include a 2.5 % increase in corporate tax to 27.5% on annual profits which exceed 2 million Euros, a 1 % increase in value added tax to 21 per cent and increases of up to 1.5 percentage points in income tax. As well as that lot there will be spending cuts including a general 5% pay cut for the public sector including ministers. There will also be a 100 million Euro reduction in transfer payments from central to local government. Overall these budget cuts are planned to amount to 11 billion Euros over the next four years. With a socialist government at the helm these sorts of measures will probably elicit popular unrest; however the main problem she will face is the lack of growth in her economy. As I have already said the easiest and least painful way for any country to address its fiscal debt problems is to increase GDP because even if the debt remains the same the percentage shown against GDP reduces! Portugal has gone through a decade of little economic growth so forecasts going forward now do not look rosy. It really needs to cut out all large public investment such as the TGV planned extension until such times as it can be economically justified. There is one significance for both of these countries and that is their geography as both make up the Iberian Peninsular. It could easily be the case that excessive measures in one will adversely affect the other! At least they do seem to be starting to take the situation seriously and a 15% pay cut for ministers has to be seen against ours of 5%! It would seem some are taking the situation a bit more serious than others!

Looks like the Greek problems have now settled onto the EMU as a whole with calls on Trichet to do much more about actually reducing deficits and not just talk about increasing liquidity. The very nature of the EMU members make that an almost impossible task, why, because of the lack of political union. There is a well voiced analogy for the Euro and European project and that is America. How many times did we hear about the 'United States of Europe'? A fine aspiration but in practice there are fundamental flaws and in reality we cannot even compare the USA to the EU. This is all to do with geopolitical union which means the varied peoples of Europe do not have a common ideal, we are a group of fractured states banding together out of self interest. The USA does have a deep sense of being for the vast majority of its peoples as they consider themselves Americans first whereas we consider ourselves British, French, German etc etc in fact anything but European! Without that sense of connectivity and commitment the Euro was always doomed. There would seem several options going forward but instead of the politicians being proactive in pursuit of them they will now be unadulteratedly reactive. This is always the case which emerges without clear leadership and a defined goal. We could see the Euro split and the introduction of a 'hard' Euro for the northern countries while a much 'softer' version is held by the southern countries. This is to presuppose the Euro is not allowed to fail and the only reason for that will be to save political blushes! The option of countries like Greece being able to exit and after getting their house back into some sort of shape where it meets EMU convergence criteria they are allowed back in have gone. If we do see a spilt in the Euro along the lines I have suggested I think we in the UK will have to make a national decision in the not too distant future!

I think they have just made it impossible to become unstuck until 2015, the next general election.

That seems wrong on so many points! Ask for your money back!

It would seem we haven't got off to a particularly auspicious start with our new coalition government! Listen to the rhetoric anyone might assume we would have been given quite a clear guideline if not actual policy to reduce these deficits we are beholden to and which both parties made such vociferous references to pre election! What has come out seems to be more about spending pledges and tax cuts??????????? This is not what we were promised! We are still committed to £4B increase in overseas aid. The 10K starting point for income tax is to have a staggered introduction and will cost around £4B a year for 4 years and then cost around £17B per year when fully implemented. A reduction in employer's national insurance contributions of about £3B as against Labour's plans. Reinstating the earnings link for pensions will cost around £2B. More schools funding costing around £2.5B and a jobs package costing about £.5B. So there seems to be quite some pledges there, lest look at what is to be used to cut our deficits. Aviation taxes by charging planes instead of customers should raise around £3B. Capital gains tax changes which could raise around £2B a year. A completely unspecified plan to make spending cuts of £6 billion this year "subject to advice from the Treasury and the Bank of England on their feasibility and advisability.'' Now is it just me but it looks like £16B increases with £11B reductions? That leaves us £5B worse off, hardly an inspiring start! Putting the VAT rate up to 20% would be inflationary but would raise about £12B per year which is starting to be the sort of figures we will have to put up with going forward if we are to get a hold of our budget! I can only assume the political ramifications of this hung parliament have been such fiscal planning has taken a back seat for the moment and given that we do not know the exact state of the books for UKPLC there might be some nasties hidden away somewhere that will take time to plan for?

So are you saying this coalition might actually work??? I'm willing to give it a shot if nothing else it can't be as bad as what it replaces!!!

20% only puts us into the EU average, so at least 20%! I still think at that we are on the lefthand side of that Laffer curve.

The shows not over till the fat lady sings.........

I the immortal words of the Fab Four........ If you drive a car I'll tax the street If you try to sit I'll tax your seat If you get too cold I'll tax the heat If you take a walk I'll tax your feet I'm the taxman!

Brill.........Should have stuck one on his chin! The whole thing has been worth it if we never see that particular spin doctor again..........

Did you notice how 'upbeat' Merve was trying to be, yet still having to quantify what he said with a lot of 'we have to be aware of the downside and inflation is not where we thought it would be!' Still worried they might be tempted to restart the printing presses. I hope Oik comes clean with the state of the books! Manufacturing figures were better but look at the underlying inflation in them too! As for Merve saying he agrees with the Tories about the need for immediate cuts, then we can only assume it was Brown/Darling who made him say cuts will be fine next year! So much for an independent BoE!

£9 billion cut.........thats going to hurt!

This is why the politics and economics of the county and country isn't just bullxxxx! It affects everyone, from children being born to people dying; you just cannot escape the implications! It's the politicians who decided how long Deb's husband works, how much he is paid and if he can pick up a green bag but not a black bag. Merlin's point about the paper pushers, the more complex they can make the system the more it takes to administer so in effect they protect their jobs at the expense of common sense. There are some fundamental changes needed! If you wonder why you seem to be paying more into the system but appear to be getting less and less of a service out of it, that is 99% down to something called a 'structural deficit' and means you have to keep paying in to service debts which have been piled up for years. This has a direct impact onto any worthwhile improvements we want to see in services because we can't afford to pay for them, all our money is going into debt repayments. It is no good ignoring this stuff we have to stare it down and do something about it. As for the bins question, I remember a time not so long ago when we had bins emptied twice a week and the lads took almost anything away. Now we get a bin emptied once a fortnight. I have a real issue with the green bin because we are being treated as sorters for a business therefore that one cannot be included in the general council service contract with us! I don't know what the business split is with Sita but if its 50/50 then retired Canadian teachers are profiting from our 'free' labour!!!!

The markets look to be testing the resolve much talked about by the Eurocrats only a day or so ago. They don't even have the necessary mechanism in place to deliver this trillion dollars! At best there seems to be about E90B available quite a way short of the E750b talked about! As already said the ECB doesn't have the likes of a treasury department which would over see the sales of these new ECB super bonds and directly buy the likes of Greek and Spanish bonds. In effect what they are trying to do is sell the EMU quality book, German Bunds, and buy the EMU junk bonds. This injects liquidity but it doesn't address the fundamental flaws! It is to all extents what the UK government have done with their QE programme! It produces a temporary, very temporary, breathing space but greatly adds to the eventual problem because you are piling debts onto debts. This is not rocket science at some point you have to do something to reduce the debt figures! The only saving grace as far as I can see is that this latest EU fudge is keeping the spotlight away from the UK! The UK is to have a new budget in 50 days. This will be the test of Dave's resolve to set the country on a path to reduce our deficits. If it does what it says on the can we will be in for a rough time, if it doesn't we could easily end up in the hands of the IMF again!

If anyone thought the surge on markets yesterday heralded the end of the downturn don't be fooled, injected liquidity won't solve the fundamental problems. I would say the thing to watch out for is 'independent' economists saying this will not be a long term solution and deficits have to be addressed! It is no good being able to borrow more and more just to service debt piles! It is good to see most of the world big players starting to realise that even if they don't have the political will to see the necessary measures through. Expect the UK to come under the spotlight now!

How many time have we heard this could produce a constitutional crisis, errrrrrrr when did the UK get a constitution? Watching Nick parade his wares around like a virgin at a hen party is starting to look tawdry. The fact that none seem able to convince their own elected party members to support the current deal on offer smacks of self indulgence. Dave and Nick are facsimiles of each other both being products of similar environments. Looks like someone is going to have to put Gordon out of his misery to get him out of number 10! Put them all in a ring and the one who walks out wins! Never thought I would say this but Reid made a lot of sense yesterday! Watch out for Johnson he will be at a leadership election like a rat up a drainpipe!