Malcolm Robinson

Well as it stands I am at a loss to see the relevance of the likes of PMQ's, in fact given the present system the whole of the Commons looks pretty irrelevant itself! What is the point of putting up a solid argument in opposition when the governing majority just ignore it? Suppose we could ask Vince Cable about that one! There has to be a solution where the arguments are based on merit not political expediency and for that to happen the party structure has to go! Can someone explain what happens when you've taken a problem to an MP and it has been progressed a way, then that MP is suddenly removed from office? No but I can tell you what happens when you contact our MEP, errr nothing for 6 months then a stock reply! (To be fair it was only one MEP out of the 3, but he is on the EU committee which oversees the point of my question!)

Aren't quite a few people who voted for a manifesto about to see their vote compromised considering the horse trading which is going on and isn't that a fact of life within the realms of PR style voting?

It seems Mrs Merkel has paid the price for offering German Euros to Greece; her party have lost out big time in the latest election in Westphalia and have so lost control of the upper German house. The details of this new super deal the Eurocrats have announced not just for Greece but for the Euro as well need a bit more examination. The forecast figure of 1000B turned into over 750B and is made up of several parts. There is to be a European Stabilisation Fund of 60 billion Euros which will be made available and will be accompanied by 440 billion Euros of bilateral loans which will be called a special purpose vehicle. I think we might be seeing the EU equivalent of a national Treasury which backs up monetary policy. The IMF has also agreed to further package of funds of around 250B if the 2/3rd -1/3rd share is correct. On first reactions it looks like the markets are breathing a sigh of relief on the news. However we have seen the same scenario played out many times over the last few months where actions do not relate to the rhetoric. One thing which does look to be a done deal is that the IMF have made E5.5B available to Greece immediately so she can pay her current debt liabilities and a further E30B over the next three years. We have a little longer to wait before we see if the full 16 members of EMU sign off to their E80B for Greece. So everything in euroland looks hunky dory, err maybe not so...... This IMF deal (for Greece) is substantial and represents one of the largest deals it has done with a single country. Considering the other figures talked about we see a marked change in IMF involvement as it has turned from being a lender of short term liquidity to address balance of payment problems to a lender for fiscal debt! This precipitates the question I raised several postings ago, if there are defaults who take the liabilities on and will we see them on the balance sheets of the individual member countries? It did seem as if someone (ECB) wanted the onus covered by all EU members not just EMU ones but the Swedes as well as Mr Darling look to have put paid to that. We now have to consider that countries who are themselves in financial straits will have to pay their share in this Greek bailout. That might well play out in national elections as Mrs Merkel has just found out! The practical implications of the Greek deal as well as contributions to the Euro 'fighting fund' might be a tad too much for some countries to stomach. The ECB itself is to start buying sovereign debt in secondary markets by issuing its own AAA rated bonds. This would initiate a policy of QE to enable it and that is something Trichet said only last Thursday he would never countenance! The thing to remember is that most of this stuff is only political rhetoric and looking closely at some of the comments associated with the politicians involved they may well think they will never have to bring the deals to life! So this for them is more talk in an effort to calm markets, will they never learn markets have a habit of testing this sort of fudge!

Maybe we should have a children's section!!!!!!!

Why not just get rid of political parties and vote for people who you believe are up to the job instead of ones because they wear the right coloured rosette?

Only if you want to fly through that dammed ash cloud again........ You could always try Yoga airways..........

Stephen, I tried to par it down so we could see the basics, if I put down all the permutations we would run out of room! I think the present system has been absolutely shown to be flawed, at exactly the worst time it could possibly pick! We really need a more modern electoral system but most I have read about are far too complex to deliver what is really quite a simple request?

With thanks to the BBC. What are the electoral alternatives being discussed? 1. Additional member system 2. Alternative vote 3. Single transferrable vote 4. Proportional representation. Additional member system: In this system, people get one vote for a constituency representative and one vote for a representative from a larger area such as a county or region. Alternative vote: Voters rank the candidates. If no candidate has 50% of first preferences then second preferences are counted and so on until someone has a majority. Single transferrable vote: Several constituencies are combined and voters rank the candidates. Members are elected once they pass a certain number of votes, known as a quota. Proportional representation: Everyone has a single vote. Each party has a list of candidates and the number of them elected depends on the number of votes the party gets nationwide. So everyone clear now................

Trying to find a possible solution and forecasting what may come out of the latest EMU summit meeting the ground seems pretty treacherous. To get this proposal through will mean the ECB will in some way have to accept liability for any losses incurred. That isn't as simple as it at first glance looks because the ECB is supposed to be truly independent and doesn't have the likes of the US Treasury (for the Fed) or even the UK treasury (for the BoE) behind it to absorb losses. It will need some EU organ to guarantee any liabilities and who will do that, the EU could and may well or else we might see the EU commission which will be a very poor alternative. I hope for once we see some realism and actions associated with Eurocrat uttering's! Another interesting point to make is the leader the Guardian has come out with regarding the UK and EMU. According to them they have seen draft EU policy by the Conservatives. ''The British relationship with the EU has changed with our election. We will never join the euro. We will introduce legislation early to implement our commitments: any Treaty change transferring competence or powers would require a referendum; the sovereignty bill; and increased parliamentary controls on any use of ratchet clauses” If this is true and does in fact become UK policy then the UK will have to turn down any deal along the lines of what is being talked about for the EMU members now. This is getting scary folks and could mean the EU backs defaults, with the banking system in jeopardy, or starts up its own QE measures which will probably lead to a German exit.

I have been asked why I consider this stuff to be so important and there is a very simple answer. It is one thing for a single country to be in fiscal difficulties, that's bad enough, quite another for 16 of them as a group. We are seeing a concerted effort now to literally save the Euro and that has brought the Fed to the table. If the Euro does implode without any default structure in place that will tip the whole world banking system over the edge, much like the financial crisis of a couple of years ago. There is a difference this time and it is what I have already said, last time it was a crisis of confidence associated with dodgy dealing, this time it's the fundamentals which have never been addressed. The politicians seem to be waking up to that fact! It will lead to a breakdown in social cohesion as countries scramble to get their houses in order, which because of the huge nature of the beast they won't be able to do. The Eurocrats seem to have had a 'road to Damascus' experience over the last few days and even the most hardened sceptics of bail outs, Germany and Holland, have capitulated. In fact it looks like Sarko is leading the charge, why him I don't know as he seems one of the least capable out of the lot, but he has even managed to silence Germany! Germany and Holland, whose populaces are almost implacably against any bail out going to Greece, or anywhere else, have seemingly overnight agreed to play their part. The PM of Luxemburg went on German TV and said, 'We stand together, we fall together. We will do whatever it takes to save the Euro.” This new accord within the EMU states in effect allows them to go nuclear in efforts to save the Euro. The package they seem to be gravitating towards is allowing the ECB to offer single Eurozone bonds and the limit, about 1000 billion dollars! Blooming heck they have just replaced a generations worth of repayments with infinite repayments but we can clearly see the size of the problem now! I have been looking into the numbers of the debtor nations to see why this has happened and we see France (Sarko!) is owed about $950B, Germany $704B and even the UK comes in at $418B. Any default or even haircuts on these figures will produce a meltdown in any of the banking systems mentioned, which will spread to the rest. The result, we are back to staring over the edge of a cliff! It may be worth pointing out that even at the time of the Great Depression, generally, currencies and social cohesion were pretty solid. This time it is the currency being attacked and the CDS markets are bringing the banking systems into the fray. Seems someone in Europe has woken up to that fact!

I think they can probably sort a deal out, give or take, on everything apart from PR. I think you are right about time delays producing the unquantifiables.

Some interesting quotes on various web sites concerning this stuff yesterday............ "We will defend the euro, whatever it takes,” European Commission President Jose Barroso. "Europe is getting its act together; time will tell if this statement is enough to satisfy the European bond market vigilantes.” Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd. "When the markets re-open Monday, we will have in place a mechanism to defend the euro, if you don't think that's significant, you haven't been to many EU summits.” French President Nicolas Sarkozy. "There is a need for a clear, timely and strong response,” Canadian Finance Minister, Jim Flaherty. "There are impacts on financial markets, including share markets, from the events in Europe and in Greece more specifically. We are urging as speedy a resolution as is possible in the circumstances.” Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan. ''Europe will send a very clear signal against those who want to speculate against the euro.” German Chancellor Angela Merkel. Well can so many of the great and good be wrong? Can they really get their acts together and come up with a plan, for what is in effect at this stage in the game, to save the euro. If the markets keep taking positions against Spain and Portugal hard to see even this slush fund will be enough. Good job the Yanks are taking it seriously, and all in the name of keeping the dollar No 1 world reserve currency. BTW, those German academics lost their court fight trying to stop any German Euros going into the Greek pot. The thing which worries me is that all of this talk, money, loans etc is really going into servicing sovereign and structural debt piles in an effort to keep the system running. It is not being used for infrastructure improvements or investment as a way of earning our way out of the mess we are in. At some point someone will say the 'Emperor has no clothes on!'

If only we had some proper politicians like they do in Nigeria. Who wouldn't vote for someone called Goodluck Johnathan!

Footsie is about to open, my bet a 200+ drop! Bit pessimistic only about 150! The machinations over the Greek problems and Eurozone in general haven't gone away with this new plan they have intensified. Member countries have almost ratified it but if we look at Greek CDS's they have blasted off in a straight line upwards! This is the costs to insure Greek debt. We now see the Yanks becoming overtly involved. There is a meeting this weekend in Basil where Fed representatives are meeting with European central bankers. I expect an announcement Sunday possibly something along the lines of America will back the European banking system. In other words the Fed could be about to underwrite European banking!!!!!!!! This seems a little strange but look a bit closer especially at Euro/Dollar rates and we can easily see why. Not one of any of the countries involved are in a position of fiscal strength so we must assume sovereign debt will forever be underwritten by QE measures, amen! This is lunacy and is only putting off the day of reckoning! On a domestic note our electoral uncertainty has already had effect. Looking at the gilt markets and what the pound is doing would seem testament to that. If we consider the implications of the LIBOR moves then we see the same sort of framework which precipitated Lehman's! This is not the time for wishy washy politicians; we have seen what dithering has done to the Greek scenario!

How long before we see the headlines...........The Lib Dem Con.

It strikes me that we will probably see exactly the same situation as we have in our county, albeit the parties in opposite positions regarding the main administration. Here we have the Lib Dems as a minority administration and only the support from the Conservatives got their budget through this year. If we get Clarkie and Cable in the same backroom team at the treasury the whole debacle might just have been worth it! I find it staggering Brown is trying to carry on??????

OK Stephen, biggest positive increment by historical self comparison.

Looks like monsta's party recored the biggest swing.........

http://news.bbc.co.uk/nol/shared/election2010/results/constituency/e89.stm

This is getting bizzare..........someone will need a corkscrew to get Brown out of number 10!

Footsie is about to open, my bet a 200+ drop!

Hexham or Morpeth more like!

Monsta.......every opportunity???? Sorry to hear your old second choice leader is in hospital following his aeroplane crash. Not to make light but maybe he should have phoned the current UKIP leader (Parker) and put Thunderbirds on go........

Markets are still tumbling, the Euro is heading towards parity with the dollar, Spanish resolve is being tested and now we have Greek fatalities to add into the mix. If the Greeks decided anything is worth maintaining EMU membership then I think we really have to consider a much longer term solution. It seems obvious that even this latest bailout package is flawed and on more than one count. This plan still leaves Greece after 3 years with a huge fiscal debt and the associated austerity measures will probably push it into a deep recession which makes loan repayments unaffordable. It is crazy! The ECB has to realise that solving the Greek problem will take time and yes a restructuring of the Greek economy has to take place but it has to be implemented over a much longer time frame. The Greek or any other economy for that matter cannot go cold turkey overnight that produces as many problems as it solves. So the ECB needs to have even deeper pockets than thought and agree a reform package which will eventually turn the Greek situation around. If that isn't an option, and Germany could scupper that sort of deal, then Greece really has to consider the best option for its people and as I have already said I would be considering exiting the Euro if a decent deal could be stuck with the ECB, who holds a hell of a lot of Greek debt paper. An agreed default or at the very least a 50% write down on that would give Greece the breathing space it needs to restructure and mean it could do the necessary domestic changes over the medium term and that would probably give it the populous support needed. In the main this whole Greek problem started because of a lack of truth in her fiscal position as reported by previous governments. Had they done so they probably wouldn't have been allowed EMU membership. An interesting but worrying observation is that Osborn has been allowed a sneak peek at the UK books, they do this stuff to make possible newly elected governments hit the ground running, and his considered reply.....'They are a work of fiction!' If the Tories do get in today and we do see a spending review within 100 days that might end up being even tighter than anyone feared. Poignant report I noticed today, a Chinese manufacturer has moved production from China to Thailand (I think it was) citing labour costs! Well they say what goes around comes around!

D Day........good luck everyone.