Crash 2 The Sequel!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Schadenfreude

It would seem the 'final curtain' is about to come down on the latest Euro Summit/Treaty/Pact/Accord or whatever and this time within a week! A French downgrade will inevitably raise her borrowing costs and as one of the two principle players pushing for EU fiscal prudence and unity behind an automatic and binding agreement this would seem to leave only the Germans in any position to lecture or pay for any bailouts and as they are effectively tied by their constitution not to do so this would seem to leave Mr Draghi and the ECB with the unenviable task of printing enough Euro paper to cover EU needs, again not something they are legally entitled to do.

Our very own Mr Cameron seems to have somehow misplaced his ticket for the maiden voyage of the Titanic and whilst our continental EU partners are trying to make sure she sets sail on time they must be wondering if the Brits hid their own ticket!

The astonishing attack on this country by 'Monsewer' Noyer, head of the Bank of France and a member of the ECB's governing council, saying that the UK should be targeted by ratings agencies and downgraded before France is even considered, is in reality a thinly veiled attempt at sideswiping and negative misdirection. It would be interesting to actually see what the French banks have parked in the ECB by way of assets, toxic they must be radioactive and we would get Geiger-counter readings off them even in the wilds of Northumberland! Not hard to see why the EU wants to disband these rating agencies! If the rumours about this are in anyway true and we do see a two notch French downgrade then effectively the game is up, especially for the re-election hopes of a certain Monsieur Sarkozy!

Target practice anyone............

[Malcolm Robinson]

Bedlington and the IMF............

As I have warned several times the oft repeated quotes from our panjandrum political leaders saying the UK will not be bailing out the Euro now resembles a tissue of mendacity! Not only have we already seen around £12 billion go into propping up Eurozone countries we now have the very real prospect of throwing almost £26 billion into an IMF fund which is directly bailing out the Eurozone. This would make the UK contribution second only to Germany and of equal size to France, and this from a country French officials have just been telling everyone is bust! This figure represents an amount greater than the self-imposed austerity cuts in the UK and we really do have to wonder what planet that makes sense on?

The real problem I have is this will inevitably become a fund which once endorsed and filled will probably become so rapacious because of what it is trying to fulfil we could very well end up throwing more and more money into it so as not to accept losses. As it is the job losses we have already seen in the UK can now easily be ascribed to saving a foreign currency!

For some reason the very institutions at the centre of the whole problem are being given 'get out of jail free cards' as their debts are socialised yet we still see huge bonuses being paid for what in reality are very nefarious financial activities. It's a pity the mantra of 'too big to fail' wasn't ascribed to our mining, steel, and shipbuilding industries, to name a few, we might still have been a producer country instead of one reliant on 'white van man' running up and down the country delivering goods made overseas!

I am going to invest in that 1970's high fashion accessory, a nuclear bunker, and maybe Bedlington shouldn't be pushing for a sports/leisure centre but rather open up the old pit workings to provide a warren of safety as we contemplate our financial Troglodytic future.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Saying nowt me...............

[Malcolm Robinson]

Worth watching through........bleeping jackasses, bleeping morons!

Basically swap the UK institutions for the US ones and hey presto..............

[Malcolm Robinson]

Spanish numbers……..

Having been on cardio monitors for a while Spain looks to be on life support!

The previous government said they would hit a fiscal deficit of 6% of Gross Domestic Product in 2011. The new government said 8% and the Spanish Interior Minister has just announced it will be 8.2%. To achieve this they are introducing an austerity package made up of about 9B Euros in cuts and 6B Euros in tax increases. This will actually produce a reduction of about 1% in her fiscal deficit. Target for this year was 4.4% with 3% planned for next year. Taking 1% off the 8.2% just announced is a good way short of 4.4% so enlarging the austerity cuts and/or increasing tax would seem to be the only likely governmental response in the absence of any sort of growth.

Unemployment is about 22%, (youth unemployment about 50%!) housing is over a cliff, industrial production figures well down even on the 2005 ones and retail figures which have double digit negatives. All in all Spain is in a recession rushing headlong into depression!

Like others in Club Med the way Spain used to get out of a fiscal jam was to devalue but having a currency pegged to what is in essence the Euro Deutschmark can only increase the screws even more. We either get a European Germanic Fatherland or these countries have to default and exit the Euro as it stands now.

[threegee]

Hungary the next candidate for meltdown it would appear, and they are "as mad as hell, and not going to take it!" - at least from the IMF.

Back to Chairman Dave:

I think it's very unfair on the .... people themselves who don't really know when this question is going to be asked, what the question is going to be, who's responsible for asking it.

"And I think we owe the .... people something that is fair, legal and decisive.

"So in the coming days we'll be setting out clearly what the legal situation is, and I think we need to move forward and say, 'Right, let's settle this issue in a fair and decisive way'.

Count the fairs - it's almost as if it were catching from Cleggie. Pity the "...." is Scotland and not the UK! Pity he's talking about a Scottish referendum in relation to independence, and not about a UK one in relation to independence from the EU. Double standards? Nnaaa.. politicians are always totally consistent - when it suits them!

[Malcolm Robinson]

If this is true you really couldn't make the stuff up!!!!!!!!!!!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9036199/Tainted-former-EC-president-Jacques-Santer-to-raise-money-for-EU-bail-outs.html

[Malcolm Robinson]

Stop Press……………………………….

Stone the crows the very latest attempt by the Troika to solve the Greek crisis is something of slap in the face for democracy and self-rule! Effectively what they have just done is take control of a sovereign state and impose their own rules and regulations citing Greece's failure to impose Troika mandated cuts and asset sell offs and (here's the real cruncher!) all Greek State income to go first to creditors – by law. That is taxpayers, few of them as is, actually paying Hedge fund bonuses directly!

This could easily be replicated in Portugal, Spain etc. if it works in Greece and could be the blueprint for the Federalist EU which the likes of Madam l'Orange says they are in fact working towards. It's one thing holding a national referendum asking everyone if they agree to closer ties with other sovereign states, quite another to forcibly impose a takeover!

Looks to me like fascism is alive and well in the corridors of power within the EU and once again it might well be down to the people to see through it and act accordingly. Rope and lampposts come to mind!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Fast moving stuff...........This could get very scary very quickly and with a bunch of half-wits in charge it probably will.

At 14.30 precisely today, Athens categorically rejected the German proposal to cede control over its budget to the European Union as a precondition for the second bailout package for Greece. "We can never accept this. A similar proposal was made in the past by a Dutch minister. We will not even discuss it” senior governmental sources told Athens News Agency.

[threegee]

Why does the inevitable take so long these days, and cost so much of other people's money in the process?

Fascism it may be, but it's not old-style might-is-right, just-go-for-it-because-we-can, fascism. More like let the gravy train roll-on just a few hundred yards more (sorry meters!) and damn the ultimate expense - because we've got 300 million mugs out there to fund it (and their children, and their childrens children), fascism!

Suppose it amounts to the same thing though. A reckless disregard of common sense; of other people's rights; for other people's point of view, and the pursuit of power whatever the consequences may be. Hey, isn't that Stalinism too? No, wrong; Uncle Joe had a cunning plan - this shower can't think it through far enough to have any "end" to justify their means!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Looks ready for the footsie to have a major correction any time now but maybe the additional £75B the BoE will almost certainly put through as more QE will find its way into share prices, somehow!

London property now looks to be holding the whole UK market up and even with £275B sloshing around trying to stimulate the economy you have to be of divine birth to get a mortgage.

Time is up for Greece and Portugal looks to be in as bad a place. Spain, Ireland, Italy, Hungary and France to follow. Either that or Frau Merkle will be told to start using DM again! Either way the Euro is finished!

The UK has spent more than 30 times the dosh on banks than it has saved through austerity cuts...........mull that one over! In fact the Gov might even end up paying more into a Euro bazooka or SPV or some other stupid acronym than it has saved though imposing homeland cuts.

Speaking of the UK we might be about to enter the spotlights, there is downward pressure on sterling against anything other than a Euro. If we get stripped of our AAA rating expect GGG's depression. I don't need to justify anything by moving decimal points around, unlike the ONS, it is clear we have been in real recession for over 2 years now and that's starting off from a completely synthetic place, economically speaking.

The Emperor has no clothes on!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Things are warming up over the Channel.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2099562/Freeze-Its-police-v-firefighters-streets-Brussels-striking-crews-hose-PMs-office-protest-pension-reforms-turn-cops-ice.html

And an excerpt of a letter from Greek Police to leading members of the Troika,

"….Since you are continuing this destructive policy, we warn you that you cannot make us fight against our brothers. We refuse to stand against our parents, our brothers, our children or any citizen who protests and demands a change of policy….We warn you that as legal representatives of Greek policemen, we will issue arrest warrants for a series of legal violations … such as blackmail, covertly abolishing or eroding democracy and national sovereignty…..”

One Greek political party has refused to sign up to the Germanic led new austerity targets, the price of getting anymore money out of the ECB, and more than two sitting MP's have resigned. The far Right and Left are picking up popular support as each condemns the sanctions imposed on Greece.

Let's hope the ''legal representatives of Greek policemen'' find a compliant judge and get some arrest warrants issued……… now that would be a leap forward in democracy (something invented by the Greeks anyway), holding politicians up to the law of the land! Might even catch on over here……………

[Symptoms]

We could see the Colonels back!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Looks like our AAA is coming under pressure now............

[Malcolm Robinson]

Looks as if Greece, Portugal and Ireland could well be dropped as worthy of support in favour of the bigger players (Spain, Italy and France) in the Euro debt fiasco.

Watch out for a bit of trickery pokery from the Fed to keep the CDS this side of the water and listen for March 23rd as a probable Greek default date!

[Brett]

Not sure if this is relevant in this thread but it kind of seemed right.

Tesco offering permanent night shift for Job Seekers

In a sense Tescos are defrauding the government (and in turn you and I, since I don't expect the tax I pay to in part be used to stack the shelves of Tescos who are a private limited company who seek to maximise profit for shareholders) because they are fully capable of footing the bill to employ these people. They're getting labour without cost from the government the same as some fraudsters get money from the government when they aren't entitled to it.

What they should be doing is offering the positions as jobs, not for JSA, because JSA is paid out of the taxes you and I pay, just the same as benefits are to people who are committing fraud. This would in turn be of benefit to the individuals and society/government statistics as the number of unemployed would decrease!

It doesn't benefit individuals to be obliged to work for Tesco's, it prevents them from spending time searching for proper, permanent positions, denys others of the opportunity to be employed in Tescos positions themselves and only benefits Tescos who don't have to pay to have their shelves stacked.

......and it goes beyond Tesco. http://www.boycottworkfare.org/?page_id=16

Holland & Barrat, HMV, Argos, TKMaxx, PriMark, Boots, McDonalds, a couple of Councils etc. etc.

Interesting that some have replaced redundant staff with workfare placements, but hey its ok, they can sign on for their JSA and get their old jobs back for a fraction of the wage they were earning! Win-win for everyone eh!

Why not just offer on the job training at minimum wage not government paid JSA? Would have all the benefits you highlight Dibby but not cost the taxpayers who fund JSA.

Edited February 17, 2012 by Brettly

[Malcolm Robinson]

I completely agree Brettly.

This was first mentioned to me by one of our now regular contributors on these boards and I couldn't believe what was happening. Its one thing working a trail period with the possibility of a full time job at the end, quite another to be told on day one that there is absolutely no chance of a position being offered at the end of the workfare placement.

If the whole point of workfare is to instil a working ethic then firstly there are many other areas where people can be 'placed' which would offer some real benefits not just to themselves by way of qualified training but even the community at large. Giving large national and multi-nationals what is effectively free labour would seem counter-productive and actually take jobs out of the economy?

Once again another scheme dreamt up no doubt by people who have absolutely no real experiences of either their remit or the ramifications which occur.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Just to underline the point..........

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/protest-plan-over-tesco-job-advert-082449134.html

[Malcolm Robinson]

''The ECB, on its own and without judicial or parliamentary review, has swapped their Greek debt for new Greek debt that is not subject to any "collective action clause.” They did this unilaterally and without the consent of any other sovereign debt bond owners of Greek debt.''

If you don't like the rules just change them, and make the change retrospective!

The ECB.......making it up as it goes down the plug hole!

The ECB must...must...be chok-a-block, absolutely stuffed full of toxic assets, which by way of their accounting methods are deemed to be realisable at full face value? Madness!

[Brett]

Work experience scheme in disarray as Tesco and other retailers change tack

There's a novel idea ... paying people to do work. Why hadn't they thought of that before?

[Malcolm Robinson]

This EU stuff has nowt to do with Bedlington.................

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9104728/Lloyds-considers-borrowing-money-from-ECBs-emergency-fund.html

[Malcolm Robinson]

Worth watching through, although never forget this is a snake oil salesman too!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7fnlRS_0xQ&feature=player_embedded

[Malcolm Robinson]

The EU explained in a simple picture......................

[Malcolm Robinson]

Quick Greek update,

In a move that would tax the brass neck of any worthwhile dictator the Greek government has used money to purchase government bonds from various bondholders without getting permission from the bank account owners. The bank account owners being various state bodies such as hospitals, universities, utility companies etc.

The bondholders were the tiny minority of private sovereign creditors who, under the original terms of their bond purchase, were entitled come what may to full payment of the bond's yield entitlement. Cost…estimated at 1.5 billion Euros. So those bond holders are paid off and the rest made to take up to a 70% hit on their investment, or write down or adjustment, whatever just don't call it a default!

So most of the reserve and operating capital held in the likes of the Bank of Greece by these state institutions has been sequestrated to enable the current Troika bail-out conditions. Not hard to see schools and universities closing, hospitals turning patients away, power cuts and all at a time of massive austerity weakness in both the social and economic corridors in Greece.

It's going to take bloodshed to change this now and I would expect to start seeing that very soon.

Also watch for the Merkle reaction to the worsening situation in Spain.

Reading the MSM of course everything is tickety boo now isn't it?

[Symptoms]

Let me remind you all of what the Oracle Symptoms wrote way back on February 11th:

"We could see the Colonels back!"