The un-Amazing Mr Ed.

[threegee]

It's looking increasingly likely that Labour will axe Ed Miliband before the general election, but just supposing he survives?  For the Tories that's a dream scenario, he's worth 20 to 60 seats to them.

 

Yes, suppose Ed makes it to the general election as Labour leader. He's in a safe Labour seat with a near 11,000 majority right?

 

Well, times change:

 

North Doncaster Parliamentary

Year -- Labour % of Poll

===================

1997 -- 69.8%

2001 -- 63.1%

2005 -- 55.5%  Hampstead Ed. bussed in to replace Old Labour Kevin Hughes

2010 -- 47.3%

 

Ed already lost Labour's overall majority, and if Middleton is anything to go by he'll now lose about 35 - 40% of traditional Labour voters this time around.  Seeing what happened in Middleton no Tory with an ounce of sense is going to waste their vote on Cameron in this seat of all seats. Those believing that there was nowhere to go but the extremist BNP to restore some sanity on immigration (shockingly almost 3000 there by 2010) now have a rational way to express their disapproval of the ruling elites. So, all that can save Ed is switching LD voters.  Chances are that many of those voting LD didn't really swallow all the pro-EU garbage anyway, but we'll get on to that.

 

So, it's more than even odds that Ed is going to pull off the impossible: as prospective prime minister, lose a safe seat for his own party, and so lose a premiership directly at the hands of his own voters!  In the process he'll spin off one of the lamest governments in history.  Just at the time we'll need strong government to deal with a failing EU, and more and bigger demands for financial support from Brussels.

 

Ed's cohort of psephologists and focus groups have been here for some weeks now.  The wake-up call has got through to many in the party, hence the noises off.  The disintegration of the Scottish branch of the party was the final straw.  Scottish Labour is going to try to distance itself as much as possible from Ed.  He stands for everything the Nationalists are recruiting against.  So what are those expensive spin doctors telling him?  They are telling him that as he can no longer depend on the working class vote, he needs to pick up those sold-on-Europe LD's.  So this is exactly what he's going to do.  All the empty rhetoric about the EU needing reform is going on the back burner, and he's going to try to appeal to "all" those LD's that are so in love with the EU they won't hear any of the huge downside.

 

What those people with an 'ology in New Labour don't understand is that many former LD voters weren't convinced about the EU and were simply voting for change. A lot of support for the EU comes from the Cameronian wing of the Tory party, and they aren't going to step in and save Ed.  It's a bet on a lame horse anyway - even hard core LDs recognise that the Euro they were so hung up on would have been a disaster for our economy. They can even be heard to be muttering essential reform in certain corners - reforms that can never happen!

 

So, here comes the switch!  Ed is now going to roll out all the old LD crap. The crap about losing UK jobs (those three million jobs that depend on the EU - remember?).  Also, remember those two million Brits who "live and work in the EU" who will have to come home - except that 96% of them are retired; don't actually have jobs; have pensions taxed in Europe and not in the UK.  If they really did come home - which they won't - the UK economy would get a further boost.

 

In case you've been asleep for the last week, we are a huge net contributor to the EU.  All sane economic projections indicate that we'd be a lot better off out.  As it fails we are going to suffer anyway; any dithering in distancing ourself from it is going to cost us dearly.  There are only two beneficiaries of the EU.  One is big business, as it drives down labour costs, and the second is the political classes who have the divine right to rule - this side of the general election anyway!

 

But, lets wait to hear the cynical switch from Ed himself...  Meanwhile an interlude:

 

 

 

Oh, look, I never mentioned Ukip - this will do.

[Symptoms]

The bottom line is the Miliband appears to be a dick and this is something that cannot be disguised by his camouflage squad.  I've always believed that the vast majority of the non-aligned public vote for the guy in charge and not the party he represents.  Miliband has the same problem of that other useless sod, Kinnock;  they're both dicks.  It really is as simple as that!