Greece And The Eu

[Malcolm Robinson]

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/blog/editors_corner/article/59684/

[Malcolm Robinson]

OK for another 2 weeks then........

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20100221/tts-uk-greece-papandreou-ca02f96.html

[Stephen]

Actually Stephen we might be higher up your list than that! If we accept 10 year gov debt bond yields in comparison to German Bunds is indicative then the UK is in a worse position than Spain or Italy. UK 10 yr bond yields are .95% above German ones with Spanish ones .81% above and even Italian ones at .84%.

I know. Our credit rating hasn't actually been downgraded but the yields are such that it may as well have been. The next gilt auction is on Wednesday by the way, £3billion of 2019 bonds up for sale but this time the BoE won't be buying

I think the point about Lehman is that it did expose the whole thing as a house of cards, with the CDS market being so opaque that no-one knew just how badly exposed they were. Yes, the system should allow the likes of Lehman to fail without causing so much collateral damage but it didn't. And we've relied on that - our growth has come from such markets, rising public spending, and rising personal debt. Along with the deficit, the national debt, the high level of personal debt, and the pensions demographic time bomb, one of my other main worries for the future is where our economic growth is going to come from now?

[Stephen]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing. and we can all have opinions MYSELF included as to how and why this catestrophic global event took place, we can ALL point fingers and apportion blame. However the fact of the matter is there are folks and corporations in the world who have actually made money out of this I mean what other business (apart from football) would folks who fail get paid annual bonusus ammounting to decades of earnings for a normal person.

If I fail in my job i,m down the road as are are most of us... not these buggers they should be held accountable and I mean from the highest level it wont make a great deal of difference and it won,t FIX our problems however it might just make ammends to some of the poor innocent individuals who because of the greed of others are the ones who are REALLY affected.

Well I work for BT so I've seen a few people get rewarded very well for spectacular failure. We're told that companies must pay these huge salaries to get top talent, yet some people seem to make whole careers out of failing at one company and being paid a fortune to repeat this at another one... rather like football managers.

[sizsells]

Well I work for BT so I've seen a few people get rewarded very well for spectacular failure. We're told that companies must pay these huge salaries to get top talent, yet some people seem to make whole careers out of failing at one company and being paid a fortune to repeat this at another one... rather like football managers.

Well if I were you I,d be making a BIG thing of it.

I also have worked for large companies and seen "top talent" drafted in to help us to stay ahead of the opposition however when they are not performing I have and will continue to do so and say something about it. It may not please those responsible for bringing in these people and believe me when other companies in my field find out about these top people they won,t be approached.... simple really and not like football at all

[Malcolm Robinson]

Our credit rating hasn't actually been downgraded but the yields are such that it may as well have been. The next gilt auction is on Wednesday by the way, £3billion of 2019 bonds up for sale but this time the BoE won't be buying.

Be interesting to see if our AAA rating is worth the paper it isn't written on?

And we've relied on that - our growth has come from such markets, rising public spending, and rising personal debt. Along with the deficit, the national debt, the high level of personal debt, and the pensions demographic time bomb, one of my other main worries for the future is where our economic growth is going to come from now?

Is that the economic growth which will service these debt piles? It will have to be exponential for us to stand still! Interest rates can't stay at these artificial levels for much longer so we face increasing costs, probably, year on year. Without the needed revaluation of these asset bubbles we will be paying a very large proportion of our GDP into servicing the debt associated with the delusion of our personal and national wealth instead of investing in the infrastructure the country needs to be a sustainable player in the 21st century economy.

As for Sizsells take on the bankers, with a capital W, I would charge them with financial treason. They have done more to bring the country to its knees than any terrorist organisation!

[Malcolm Robinson]

The Fed's rise in discount rate the other day might signal the tide is turning for rates worldwide. If it is then economies will be squeezed at exactly the time they shouldn't be.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Monetary union without political integration...........

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/22/20100214/tbs-uk-eurozone-germany-4210405.html

[Malcolm Robinson]

Sizsells,

You been lobbying for this Robin Hood tax on banks? 0.05% tax on banking activities which have no impact onto members of the public, derivative trading etc, produces something like......£100 billion PA! Ratchet it up by a decimal point and start to pay the deficit off without impacting onto community services!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Here's the video.......

http://www.one.org/international/blog/?p=2298&gclid=CJ7_jYyThqACFcUB4wodcXXitA

[threegee]

Sizsells,

You been lobbying for this Robin Hood tax on banks? 0.05% tax on banking activities which have no impact onto members of the public, derivative trading etc, produces something like......£100 billion PA! Ratchet it up by a decimal point and start to pay the deficit off without impacting onto community services!

Yeah, I fell for the Tobin Tax idea too. But since listening to a few people in-the-know (and one of them is Unswervin' Mervin) it's sadly not going to work. A classic case of too good to be true; somewhere the books have to balance, and someone has to pay the bill. I still remain to be persuaded that a straight levy on liquidity the banks create is not a bad idea. It seems crazy to me that licencing them to print money - and thus make huge profits with it - is not something the public purse shouldn't derive some large benefit from. Apparently revenue producing licences for semi-monopolistic activities are only for things like struggling community radio stations.

Steven still seems to think that this problem is one of a few bad banks. It's not, it's systemic! Lehman sailed only very slightly closer to the wind than many, and the banks were only doing what banks do. If you are going to regulate them at all then you have at least to understand what you are regulating. It was a failure to understand what was going on, and a delusion that the economy could walk on water.

Both in the failure and in the delusion our own Mr B had a rather big hand. Remember "an end to boom and bust"? Remember Mr Toast of the City, and how we were all in this together at the Lord Mayor's bean-feast? Our future was in financial services and the new globalnomics meant we could leave the getting-hands-dirty stuff to the minions in the Far East. Global problem? Certainly not from where the guardians of China's countless billions stand! But hopefully, to them, we're too big (customers) to let fail!

I dunno about the fat-cat stuff. I think good old socialist envy comes into this argument at some point. On the other hand where is real capitalism and healthy competition in all this when failure is so generously rewarded?

Brown/Darling must go, the quicker the better; the FSA is a joke and needs scrapping, put the light-touch regulation back in the hands of the B of E - the only one of the three institutions that seems to have the slightest grasp of what is really going on. Greece is a basket case; they (both major parties) are apparently demanding that the Germans get them out of the mess by paying war reparations. Now that's a way of persuading your only friend that has a thick enough wallet, that you've come to your senses, and will not over indulge in future! Especially when it seems that Germany did pay them quite substantial reparations way back when. Turkey in the EU? Didn't WE invade them at one point?

[Malcolm Robinson]

It was a failure to understand what was going on, and a delusion that the economy could walk on water.

I think it was a failure because it gave leaders such an easy option. A sound economy needs to be sector diverse but they took their eye off that ball once financials and the service sector in general took off, and what better timing than to have a consumer boom. I remember being at a business presentation at Durham in the late 90's when a high ranking gov officer said they expected the service sector to take up the slack in the jobs market produced by the recession in manufacturing. It was as misguided then as it is now. BTW we are seeing the same sort of unimpressive thinking much closer to home, take a look at NCC's 5 year economic strategy!

I dunno about the fat-cat stuff. I think good old socialist envy comes into this argument at some point. On the other hand where is real capitalism and healthy competition in all this when failure is so generously rewarded?

Exatamundo GGG, there is no downside, even if gross levels of incompetence are apparent. Now that would be the case for the directors of Equitable Life etc, this lot are in a league of their own!

Apparently revenue producing licences for semi-monopolistic activities are only for things like struggling community radio stations.

[Malcolm Robinson]

So Greece was supposed to provide her up to date economic statistics to Eurostat last week but missed the deadline. Hardly surprising the markets are thinking about down grading Greek debt at exactly a time when it needs international belief to get it bonds away. On top of the strikes we see it doesn't paint a picture of a country taking its problems seriously.

Another area of concern is that despite all the huffing and puffing we saw by her European partners, the whispered emergency funding has not materialised. 25B became 20B but where is it? They have now said the funds will be available after the Greek government auction its bonds, to make up any shortfall, but where is the sense in that? Under ECB rules a fund of this sort is made up proportionally by population and GDP so Germany will have to pay in nearly 30% and we may have seen German public reaction to that! BTW, Italy would have to pay in about 18%, Spain and Portugal would also have to contribute, I can see that happening, not!

One plan floated was to allow Greece to withdraw from the Euro for a few months then rejoin at a lower rate, effectively devaluing Greek Euros, but that would mean everyone in Greece would loose out by the percentage of the devaluation as soon as they rejoined. Not only that there would be a queue of club Med countries wanting to go down that route.

Greece could threaten to withdraw from the euro of course and that could probably signal the end to this fiscal experiment certainly for the weaker economies involved. That may well be the position the Greek Prime Minister is touting in private as he jets around the continent meeting other EU leaders!

This whole subject is showing the flaws in the European experiment for me. They, the Federalists, expected monetary union to lead to political integration but that is the wrong way around. We can now see the need for say German workers having to work longer, take pay cuts and economise to bale out another country whose workers have much easier terms, it can't work and realistically it shouldn't!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Interesting to hear Merv's address to a parliamentary committee yesterday about the bank's position regarding buying more UK plc debt. 'We stand ready to what seems appropriate.' So he isn't ruling out adding to the near 200,000million portfolio he already holds. Taking a view over his whole presentation what he really was saying was, 'No more please!' UK bond yields did drop slightly so he might have had some impact, but more worryingly is that 0.95% spread over German bunds is now 1.02%. I wouldn't care but the German economic stats are looking suspect themselves as is most of the eurozone stats as a whole!

Never mind we are out of recession, aren't we????????

[sizsells]

Sizsells,

You been lobbying for this Robin Hood tax on banks? 0.05% tax on banking activities which have no impact onto members of the public, derivative trading etc, produces something like......£100 billion PA! Ratchet it up by a decimal point and start to pay the deficit off without impacting onto community services!

No disrespect Malcolm but where did this 0.05% come in to it or was that just an example?

All I have said is these people/institutions should be held accountable INNOCENT folks are suffering and its wrong and immoral it,s ok reeling off figures we can all do that.... its estimated that 33% of the population are connected to the building industry in one way or another, it looks like its all we have left as everything else has been allowed to go but what does this government do about it........... oh yes they SAY they are going to build 1 million homes ...... erm wheres the money coming from....... words words and more words....... its should actualy be bolloks bolloks and more bolloks........I have a friend who supplies a national house builder and they cannot afford to pay him because yes the houses are sold but folks cannot get mortguages consequentally he cannot get paid........

Dont suppose any of that 100 billion is going spare is it

[Malcolm Robinson]

No disrespect Malcolm but where did this 0.05% come in to it or was that just an example?

I don't really know how it was worked out but I would imagine it represents a figure small enough not to make too big an impact onto trades but collectively would add up to a mind boggling amount.

http://robinhoodtax.org.uk/

[Malcolm Robinson]

All I have said is these people/institutions should be held accountable INNOCENT folks are suffering and its wrong and immoral it,s ok reeling off figures we can all do that.... its estimated that 33% of the population are connected to the building industry in one way or another, it looks like its all we have left as everything else has been allowed to go but what does this government do about it........... oh yes they SAY they are going to build 1 million homes ...... erm wheres the money coming from....... words words and more words....... its should actualy be bolloks bolloks and more bolloks........I have a friend who supplies a national house builder and they cannot afford to pay him because yes the houses are sold but folks cannot get mortguages consequentally he cannot get paid........

Dont suppose any of that 100 billion is going spare is it

As for the housing industry problems, yes gov have released money to get house building going again. However the initial figures quoted have now been almost halved. For my money this would be exactly the sort of applied Keynesian economics we should be looking at if we are to use public money to stimulate and shore up our economy in times of recession.

BTW, NCC are included in this funding and will build 100 (I think?) new houses. I have questioned NCC directors about this and they said they will be using a third party to deliver. I think that is a mistake and we should be using this initiative to provide local jobs, keep this money in the local economy (instead of seeing the profits disappear down to a board of directors in London) and deliver quality apprentiships (which themselves could provide yet more funding!). Still haven't got a reply to another question, will these houses provide rented social housing or be sold off?

[Symptoms]

Είμαι βέβαιος ότι το Ï€Î¿Î»Ï ÏƒÎºÏ‰Ï„ÏƒÎ­Î¶Î¹ÎºÎ¿ ΠολÏφημος μας που το ΚÏκλωψ θα φÏοντίσει τα ενδιαφέÏοντά μας.

For those who didn't read The Greats ...

"I am sure that our very own Scottish Polyphemus the Cyclops will look after our interests."

[sizsells]

As for the housing industry problems, yes gov have released money to get house building going again. However the initial figures quoted have now been almost halved. For my money this would be exactly the sort of applied Keynesian economics we should be looking at if we are to use public money to stimulate and shore up our economy in times of recession.

BTW, NCC are included in this funding and will build 100 (I think?) new houses. I have questioned NCC directors about this and they said they will be using a third party to deliver. I think that is a mistake and we should be using this initiative to provide local jobs, keep this money in the local economy (instead of seeing the profits disappear down to a board of directors in London) and deliver quality apprentiships (which themselves could provide yet more funding!). Still haven't got a reply to another question, will these houses provide rented social housing or be sold off?

Would that be "local" jobs for "local" people just like the ones supplied to do our new market area? our "local" boundarys have now expanded to Scotland, apart from two lads from Beaty Road

I,m not having a go at you or your politics you are are obviously very well informed and a lot of what you have to say on here I must agree makes sense, however I,m a bit more cynical than yourself I don,t trust or believe a SINGLE word this government/party national or local says or in fact writes...

[Malcolm Robinson]

Sizsells,

I wouldn't normally promote the idea of direct interference in any commercial market, the labour market being one, but these are exceptional times which require exceptional solutions. Also given the preferred route our national politicians have taken intervention in the market is almost a necessity. So yes in this case I think any organisation which is funded through localised public subscription has a duty of care towards its subscribers and as such should consider how it can best fit their needs into its service delivery and considering present circumstances if that means a certain discrimination then........put it like this if there are two options, one being keep all the money and deliver in house, the other being give this money to a national house builder and only see the profits appear on a PLC balance sheet at an AGM in London, there would only seem to be one on?

Having said that, and before GGG jumps down my neck about public sector waste and incompetence, It would need a certain level of professionalism to deliver which is maybe lacking at present!

Don't for one minute think I believe everything we are told by the elected intelligencia, I don't. There is an old adage which still holds water..........believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear!

[sizsells]

There is an old adage which still holds water..........believe half of what you see and nothing of what you hear!

Also Malcolm another old Quote Which is so particularily apt for this Labour government......You can fool some of the people some of the time and some of the people all the time but you cannot fool ALL the people all the time.

And instead of paying out huge dividends for failure to folks who have failed i.e RBS as an example put the money into the economy which they would have being paid it amounts to millions or worldwide BILLIONS probably a bit more..... are my ideas to simplistic? and if these individuals who fail complain of not getting their bonus and threaten to leave their employers .... let the buggers go I say.... after all the economy and their employers worldwide will be better off without them oh and so might WE

[Malcolm Robinson]

That's the point sizsells, we have paid billions into the banking sector as re-capitalisation only to see the banks sitting on it. We put 46BILLION into RBS and 23BILLION into Lloyds and they have called it shoring up their balance sheets. They are now back into the gambling game and the Gov won't do anything about it because they want them privatised ASAP so get the share prices up.

We have then had to start printing the money, which effectively devalues and/or leaves us with massive debt one way or another, so we can buy the debt the government need to supposedly invest in public infrastructure. Its like heads you win, tails I loose. It's a halfway house which gives a resemblance of stability for a short time but which must at some point be lanced like a septic boil! They are paying the mortgage with their credit card and it's us who will have to pick up the credit card bills, which by the way haven't landed on the door mats yet, but they will!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Είμαι βέβαιος ότι το πολύ σκωτσέζικο Πολύφημος μας που το Κύκλωψ θα φροντίσει τα ενδιαφέροντά μας.

For those who didn't read The Greats ...

"I am sure that our very own Scottish Polyphemus the Cyclops will look after our interests."

Bit more contemporary:

'Sometimes I wonder whether the world is being run by smart people who are putting us on, or by imbeciles who really mean it.'

[Malcolm Robinson]

I might be posting this on the wrong topic but then maybe not.........

Now all you financial gurus. Here is an example of how to solve the country's monetary problems.

A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A 50 QUID NOTE

It's a slow day in a little northern town called N------ham. The single mothers are packed tight into the coffee bars.

There's a chill in the air, and the streets are deserted. Times are tough, everybody is in debt, and everybody lives on credit..............

On this particular day a banker is driving through town. He stops at a local hotel and lays a £50 note on the desk saying he wants to inspect the rooms upstairs in order to pick one to spend the night.

As soon as the man walks upstairs, the hotel owner grabs the £50 and runs

next door to pay his debt to the butcher.

The butcher takes the £50 and runs down the street to settle his debt

to the farmer.

The farmer takes the £50 and heads off to pay his bill at the

supplier of his animal feed.

The guy at the Farmer's Co-op takes the £50 and runs to pay his debt

to the local prostitute, who has also been facing hard times and has

had to offer her "services" on credit.

The prostitute rushes to the hotel and pays off her room bill with the

hotel owner.

The hotel proprietor then places the £50 note back on the counter so the

banker will not suspect anything.

At that moment the banker comes down the stairs, picks up the £50 and states that the rooms are not satisfactory, pockets the £50 and leaves town.

No one produced anything. No one earned anything.

However, everyone concerned is now out of debt and now looks to the future

with great optimism.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, could be how the United Kingdom 's Government is conducting business today.

[sizsells]

I found this and thought you might be interested.

interesting