Crash 2 The Sequel!

[Malcolm Robinson]

I rest my case we import more then we export so we are losing money instead of gaining it.

Your are getting there Adam,

we are also printing money, allowing the currency to depreciate therebye importing inflation, still borrowing to cover running costs and taxing the backside off everyone.

It will end in tears I only hope they are the great and good's tears.........

[threegee]

I rest my case we import more then we export so we are losing money instead of gaining it.

Yes, but look how much less the trade gap is now than it was under Gordo. If you are saying we should stop all imports, that's quite impossible. The majority of what we import we couldn't possibly obtain in this small island, and even (for things like coal) if we did ignore international market forces we might gain in the short-term, but beyond that we doom our industries to being uncompetitive and turning out tat that no one else wanted to buy.

The real trick is buying what other people are good at making and mining, then adding value to them. There's another post on this thread about just that! Imports have always been this small island's life-blood, and what made us a small nation that changed the world. Part of that is using our skills to supply thing other nations really want/need to buy, and protectionism is the sure way to ruin all that. On the face of it the EU is about free trade, but in reality it has become a protectionist racket.

There's another factor in the trade figures besides "invisible earnings" from services, and that's what British companies earn by operating overseas and don't immediately repatriate. We are good at this too, but a high tax regime at home encourages what are essentially British companies from repatriating their overseas earnings. There is an optimum tax rate to maximise take, and that's essentially what is behind George's so-called gift to the rich.

[Malcolm Robinson]

There is an optimum tax rate to maximise take, and that's essentially what is behind George's so-called gift to the rich.

An economist would call it the Laffer Curve.............

http://www.forbes.com/sites/beltway/2011/04/04/a-victory-for-the-laffer-curve-a-defeat-for-englands-economy/

[Malcolm Robinson]

http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/sunday-times-rich-list-2012-160330454.html

[threegee]

Something we should be celebrating! If Moronband and Balls (sorry can't improve on that one!) got their way (except I'm fairly sure he isn't quite that stupid, and it's just for the audience) they'd all be up and off to sunnier climes, and we'd be taxing £0.00 at a the penal 50%.

Of course a fair proportion of this wealth is generated from government intervention in free markets and dumb things like long-past-fit-for-purpose and increasingly nonsensical patent law, that governments have absolutely no interest in freeing enterprise from.

Anyway, good luck to Paul and his well-healed and r-a-t-h-e-r smart catch; might have been suffering from a mental aberration when he got heathered through the mills, but the boy learns good! Think we may know a song about that!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Looks like the EZ is heading into official recession with the latest trade figures. Spain, Italy, and Portugal we all know about but France looks to be on the cusp too and she is an EZ mainstay. So hit by austerity at home and falling international trade it would seem there are two ends pulling against the middle.

Interesting to look at the Greek bailout and see where it is on the Troika path to salvation. Greece was supposed to see economic growth of 1.1% now while actually there is a 5% contraction! Keep these institutions away from our shores or our stagflation could turn into something much worse!

[threegee]

I'm no apologist for Sarky, but if Hollande gets in - as looks quite possible - the French are going to repeat the Brown public spending driven boom into megabust scenario for sure. Won't sit well with the Germans either. The value of Sterling many even be reflecting this right now, so not the time to be holding Euros (and we've got as few as we can get away with here!).

Greece has already defaulted, but in a way that they won't see the benefits! Only euro politicos could engineer such a mess!

Here UKIP is going from strength to strength - where they can manage to get their actual name on the ballot papers! At the next eurolections they might not just be the runner-up, but the majority party representing our country. That will be giving left-leaning Dave a few sleepless nights! His only way out could be to find an excuse for that long overdue referendum - but how would this play with the party with "Democrats" in its name?

[Malcolm Robinson]

Italy looks to be on the brink with a report into her services PMI showing a fall from 44.3 to 42.3. Already contracting that is without doubt the wrong way because it is worse and this after all that bailout dosh! The report also says……….

These services figures joined earlier-released retail and manufacturing data in showing faster contractions in activity during April that, with the exception of the latter, are approaching the rates of decline seen at the depth of the 2008/9 recession.

With a "short supply of credit” being cited toowhere has that trillion euros of ECB dosh gone????

Not sure UKIP is going from strength to strength. Yes they are getting a good percentage of votes but that isn't being transmitted into actual seats and at the end of the day………. I like Nigel, even if he was one of the city traders I would have strung up, trouble is he and UKIP are a one horse group who really only come into their own at European election time. Until they make inroads into domestic politics I doubt they will be taken seriously………..

[Malcolm Robinson]

UKIP stood candidates in the recent London Assembly election and what happened? They filled the papers in wrongly so the 8% of the vote they expected and a couple of seats turned into a fiasco with no one able to vote for them as they were incorrectly described as 'Fresh Choice for London'.

Says it all really!

Nigel said, "We can only put our hands up and say sorry to voters who wanted to back us but couldn't find our name on the ballot paper. We hoped and expected to get two seats, but this has cost us dear. It is a lesson hard learned.”

All this support you talk about for UKIP GGG, maybe it deserves a bit more professionalism than what's on offer at the moment?

[Malcolm Robinson]

Here UKIP is going from strength to strength - where they can manage to get their actual name on the ballot papers!

That was a bit prophetic GGG!

Last point…….I bet none of them fill their expenses forms in wrongly!!!!

[threegee]

...Not sure UKIP is going from strength to strength. Yes they are getting a good percentage of votes but that isn't being transmitted into actual seats and at the end of the day………. I like Nigel, even if he was one of the city traders I would have strung up, trouble is he and UKIP are a one horse group who really only come into their own at European election time. Until they make inroads into domestic politics I doubt they will be taken seriously………..

"only come into their own at European election time" is exactly my point! Though they are polling a decent number of votes in local elections now.

At the last eurolections they polled more than Labour and now have the same number of seats - and that was a whole two years ago. The majority Conservative group must know that a lot of their supporters are going to jump ship to UKIP now that they are the second party, and at last have a real chance of becoming the majority one. Sympathetic Labour voters will also see that UKIP is now the real challenger to the Conservatives, and that in voting UKIP they can send a message to Milliband on Europe, and also give the Conservatives a bloody nose; whereas a vote for Labour would be a wasted vote.

All UKIP has to say is "We are now the second party in Europe, and the only alternative choice the British people have. This election is the referendum the great majority of the people now want, and the other parties have conspired not to permit. Whatever you think or don't think of our other policies this is your one chance to make the other three parties sit up and take notice of what you are telling them. If you miss this opportunity it could take another five years or more for us to deliver a non-federal Europe for the British people. With a majority in the European parliament we will shame whatever party is running the country into doing the will of the people, and obstruct all their moves until they do deliver."

Tactical voting? You ain't seen nuffin' yet!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17974787

[Malcolm Robinson]

I'm no apologist for Sarky, but if Hollande gets in - as looks quite possible - the French are going to repeat the Brown public spending driven boom into megabust scenario for sure. Won't sit well with the Germans either. The value of Sterling many even be reflecting this right now, so not the time to be holding Euros (and we've got as few as we can get away with here!).

And there's Sarko off, possibly to New York to be a very well paid lawyer or lobbyist. Got to wonder if Carla will still be there now he's out of the limelight!

Interesting chat Holland will be having with Merkel.

[Malcolm Robinson]

"only come into their own at European election time" is exactly my point! Though they are polling a decent number of votes in local elections now.

At the last eurolections they polled more than Labour and now have the same number of seats - and that was a whole two years ago. The majority Conservative group must know that a lot of their supporters are going to jump ship to UKIP now that they are the second party, and at last have a real chance of becoming the majority one. Sympathetic Labour voters will also see that UKIP is now the real challenger to the Conservatives, and that in voting UKIP they can send a message to Milliband on Europe, and also give the Conservatives a bloody nose; whereas a vote for Labour would be a wasted vote.

All UKIP has to say is "We are now the second party in Europe, and the only alternative choice the British people have. This election is the referendum the great majority of the people now want, and the other parties have conspired not to permit. Whatever you think or don't think of our other policies this is your one chance to make the other three parties sit up and take notice of what you are telling them. If you miss this opportunity it could take another five years or more for us to deliver a non-federal Europe for the British people. With a majority in the European parliament we will shame whatever party is running the country into doing the will of the people, and obstruct all their moves until they do deliver."

Tactical voting? You ain't seen nuffin' yet!

http://www.bbc.co.uk...litics-17974787

Not sure the electorate are that clued up GGG.

Interesting power play and if Nigel comes out and nails it down owt could happen.......

[threegee]

And there's Sarko off, possibly to New York to be a very well paid lawyer or lobbyist. Got to wonder if Carla will still be there now he's out of the limelight!

Interesting chat Holland will be having with Merkel.

The true winner here is Marine Le Pen - for whom it is all working out beautifully. She knew she wouldn't win, and ordinarily she'd have put Sarky back in by telling her 6.4M voters to make the best of a bad job and vote for him. But she undoubtedly has a long-term strategy of moving her party more to the centre and splitting the UMP. Expect a re-branding and getting rid of the "Front" bit but likely retaining the National in the title. She is brighter than her father, and more street-wise than any male opponents. I think she's reading things right and is going to get power at some point; history is playing right into her hands.

Not sure the electorate are that clued up GGG.

Interesting power play and if Nigel comes out and nails it down owt could happen.......

Likewise I think Nigel is now in the right place at the right time. I've no doubt that sooner or later he will win on the single issue of Europe, as he's pushing at an open door. But.. if he (or indeed someone else) were to judge the moment right and re-brand UKIP we'd see a new major party in domestic politics too. Too soon or too late wouldn't hack it, but done at the right time and in the afterglow of a major shift of UK policy on Europe...

We've been suffering from a huge misalignment in UK politics for decades. Labour suffered a split when the SDP was formed, and the SDP should have been able to take pro-europe Conservatives with it as well as many Liberals, but failed miserably in this leaving only the present stunted LD mess. The Conservatives would have ultimately been better off following a split, but that split could still happen from the other side - indeed needs to happen. This is the true reason for the disenchantment with current politics: no one knows what any party actually stands for any longer!

The Coalition of the Unwilling (Conservatives) combined with the distinct possibility of a humiliation of major parties by UKIP could easily spark off the needed realignment.

[Adam Hogg]

Maybe we should take a page out of clement attlee's book found this while surfing the web .

one of the main achievements of Attlee's government was the maintenance of near full employment. The government maintained most of the wartime controls over the economy, including control over the allocation of materials and manpower, and unemplyment rarely rose above 500,000, or 3% of the total workforce. In fact labour shortages proved to be more of a problem. In addition, the inflation rate was also kept low.

when the Attlee Government was voted out of office in 1951, it had left the economy in better shape than they had found it in 1945, while the period from 1946 to 1951 saw continuous full employment and steadily rising living standards, which increased by about 10% per annum. During that same period, the economy grew by 3% a year, and by 1951 the United Kingdom had "the best economic performance in Europe, while output per person was increasing faster than in the United States.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Trouble there is Adam we might need something like a protracted war to realign unemployment to employment as was the case then.

No wonder there was full employment, a great swath of our workforce aged people had just died!

[threegee]

Maybe we should take a page out of clement attlee's book found this while surfing the web .

What Malcolm says; but the clue is the start of the second sentence: The government maintained most of the wartime controls over the economy, including control over the allocation of materials and manpower...

Which neatly fails to mention that the principal one of those controls was rationing - food rationing long after other countries had ended it! That's the main reason Labour lost the 1951 election.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Fear the Boom and the Bust............

[threegee]

Excellent! I don't suppose the "part-time lecturer in economics at a second-rate polly" got as far as Hayeck. He's defo long overdue reading for too slow, too shallow Microband though.

[Malcolm Robinson]

From 2005.............so who has been proved right?

Its that man again!!!!!!!!!!!!

[threegee]

LOL! Blair stumped for words!

Long pause for thought then thinks, umm.. no counter arguments here, and too dangerous to go there anyway, so I need to isolate these people. "In my experience in politics there are three kinds of people. First there are the reactionaries...". In typical shyster fashion, once he has seeded the thought he has no use for developing a real argument, and so veers off into playing to a house packed out with Euro gravy-train'ers.

Pity Nige hadn't got right of reply, as he'd surely have helped Teflon Tone as to what the other two types of politician might be!

Yes, at six or seven years distance it's self evident to all what a load of hot air is coming out of Blair. It would though be interesting to dissect his calculation of when to quit while the going was good.

[Adam Hogg]

LOL! Blair stumped for words!

Lots of love? Blair stumped for words?

Edited May 15, 2012 by Adam Hogg

[Malcolm Robinson]

GGG is old school Adam.................Laughing Out Loud!

Not only Mr B liar there is a trail of white stuff running from Mrs Brooks right up to the Chipping Norton set!

Gideon needed do much Machiavellian stuff looks like he might just get the PM'ship by default!

[Malcolm Robinson]

So the new French President takes off in his state jet to fly to a meeting with Frau Merkel where he was expected to start renegotiating the whole Euro crisis debacle and a lightning bolt hits his plane making him return to Paris.

Strewth, who's going up against Sarko or Merkle now!

[Malcolm Robinson]

The Euro

In light of the latest problems facing the European currency,

e.g. Ireland and Portugal having had a bailout

Greece facing collapse and needing another bailout,

a Belgian bank collapsing and now Italy teetering on the brink and possibly tipping Austria over the edge...

Should the UK adopt the Euro?

A cross-section survey of 10,000 people in Ashington , U.K. , made up of a representative sample of local citizens consisting of

Afghans, Albanians, Pakistanis, Poles, Iraqis, Somalis, Bosnians, Turks, Moldovans, Latvians, Lithuanians, Bangladeshis, Ethiopians, Russians, Congolese and Zimbabweans were asked if they thought Britain should change its currency.

99.9% said no, they were happy with the Giro.