Crash 2 The Sequel!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Its manufacturing which makes countries financially independent and stable, well at the very least a sizeable manufacturing sector making a mixed economic base anyway. For service sector read public sector in that argument!

Not sure many of the politicos could hold down REAL jobs, or at least jobs the hoi polloi would recognise as real!

Agreed Nigel MUST be super clean or someone would have leaked something.

Not so sure about Boris and these genuine people...........wasn't it his second in command in London who was forced to resign, against Boris's wishes? And lets not forget he got a load of heavies to beat up his old partner in crime! Nice affable clown............

[Malcolm Robinson]

Standard Chartered...........this looks like one to run and run.

Smells a bit of DSK to me and could be the Yanks trying to wrestle brokerage back to NY!

Just hope someone somewhere breaks ranks and spills the juicy stuff.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Standard and Poor's just put Greece on negative watch and maybe that doesn't mean anything to most people but this bit will.

All the austerity and cuts and sells offs were supposed to achieve a 4.3 per cent decrease in GDP this year, followed by flat growth in 2013 and 2.3 per cent growth in 2014.

S&P have released their reasons for their downgrade and this is it:

We project GDP will contract by 10%-11% cumulatively during 2012-2013, versus the negative 4%-5% assumed by the EU/IMF Program for 2012-2013.

Or double what the financial geniuses at the ECB, IMF etc forecast. Plus the vast majority of Greek debt is now in public hands so any write-downs will affect public programmes in the contributing countries. Well either that or more money printing has to ensue.

Cutbacks in the Greek the economy has had the expected (by some!) effect of knocking production and growth into a cocked hat so debt cannot be repaid by earnings only more austerity and sells offs.

This is really economics 101……I wonder if there isn't a picture we aren't seeing here, maybe about American control of the Med area?

I feel more hurriedly organised summits are about to be seen…………..

[Malcolm Robinson]

Nice one………..

http://twitter.com/sammcknight1/status/233294409519755265/photo/1

[threegee]

Standard Chartered...........this looks like one to run and run.

Smells a bit of DSK to me and could be the Yanks trying to wrestle brokerage back to NY!

...

Is that a question or stating the obvious? A typically evil British institution which needs far more federal control.

All your reputation are belong to us!

[Malcolm Robinson]

There does seem some weird stuff going on behind the scenes.........might just be my conspiratorial tendency of course!

[threegee]

There does seem some weird stuff going on behind the scenes.........might just be my conspiratorial tendency of course!

You are not alone! http://www.dailymail...s-villains.html

Ask BP!

Oh, and through marriage Dame Helen has to pretty much an authority on the subject.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Is this guy for real????????????

We have made money on printing then giving ourselves the cash????

A long walk off a very short pier is called for and if this is the level of intelligence by a leading banking economist then………….

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9476069/QE-could-fund-a-20bn-tax-giveaway.html

[Malcolm Robinson]

Just to put the last post into perspective:

A/ 2 years into a 'savage' austerity programme HMG have saved about £13B.

B/ The BOE have printed and spent £325B underpinning our bankers economy

.

(incidentally Olympics cost……….£13B without stuff like safety and security costings!!!!!!! Plus Boris telling everyone to stay away from London while it's on and a lot of people doing that?)

Now B-A = a MINUS figure of £312B or the amount of EXTRA debt HMG have taken on for us!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Plus we might well see some action on the Greek front over the next week or two.

Having just raised enough (probably thanks to the ECB!) to pay off a maturing chunk of debt Greece needs to find some dosh, or unlock the next Troika tranche, just to stand still.

Their new dictator Premier is having a round of quite secretive meetings and if I was him I would be gathering the best line of defence I could to counter Frau Merkel. Given the support the Greeks now have off Israel (?) and some other countries a Euro exit might not look too bad these days!!!!!!!!!

Course there is always the other side of the coin where the Frau might well leave the table, given her performances in the German domestic arena.

Looks like it will be down to a 4 billion Euro bluff............either Greece meets that extra austerity or a, she gets kicked out of the Euro or b, Germany exits!

[threegee]

...

Looks like it will be down to a 4 billion Euro bluff............either Greece meets that extra austerity or a, she gets kicked out of the Euro or b, Germany exits!

Maxed the final credit card to meet that one. Nothing happens in August in the Southern Med; come September and it's back to the barricades!

And, the Eurocrats will now deliver to the protesters what the Greek politicos are so very resistant to - it's finally dawned on all that Greece simply has to be thrown to the wolves. Rather than anyone being seen to be out of line, and making the first move in isolation, I think we will likely see an coordinated move with a view to minimising collateral damage and maximising the standing of those in power. The script has already been written.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Looks like Spain has turned up the heat too with Catalonia asking for Madrid to bail out her banks!

Greece will soon look like small change if this gets any bigger; and bigger it most certainly will get!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Ripped off ZH...........

"The central bank of Spain just released the net capital outflow numbers and they are disastrous. During the month of June alone $70.90 billion left the Spanish banks and in July it was worse at $92.88 billion which is 4.7% of total bank deposits in Spain. For the first seven months of the year the outflow adds up to $368.80 billion or 17.7% of the total bank deposits of Spain and the trajectory of the outflow is increasing dramatically. Reality is reality and Spain is experiencing a full-fledged run on its banks whether anyone in Europe wants to admit it or not.

The Spanish ten year now yields a 6.81% and their thirty year is yielding 7.34%. Spain has now set up a fund for its regions to tap of $22.6 billion and this, in my opinion, will not even be close to what is asked for or required with the regions needing some $50-75 billion in assistance in my estimation. Many of the regions in Spain are not paying suppliers or their other local debts and the situation is clearly out of control."

[Brett]

Should I be worried that I bank with Santander?

[Malcolm Robinson]

Unless you have at least £50K on deposit with them I wouldn't worry.............There is a government cast iron guarantee you get that back.

It isn't in anyone's interest, pardon the pun, to see any bank foreclose on its depositors, that is what has just cost us circa £400 Billion now, although the way it looks to me is that shareholders were securitised never mind depositors!

Course with present policy everyday we see inflation debauching the currency and the cost of living rising.

Maybe things will change once the financial elite have stolen everyone's cash!

Either that or people wake up and start throwing ropes over lamp-posts!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Mario Draghi…. Master of the Jedi mind tricks!

So super Mario says the he will backstop the Euro come what may and to whatever end! I bet there were a few heated discussions with Frau Merkle when she read the text of his speech!

What this means in effect is that the ECB will buy bond issues for the EU counties not able to use that facility for raising state debt and we see the interest payable on certain bonds coming down. Course it is still at uncomfortably high levels for the likes of Spain, Portugal, Italy etc. but it's all OK now coz the ECB will buy any amount of issue those countries throw out.

This might just make sense if we saw strategic investment into economic infrastructure in those countries but what we really see is debt being issued to pay maturing debt and countries needing to borrow to pay day to day running costs. The UK is included in that bit as well! This can only work if we see increases in production (for the same cost base) and therefore GDPs growing. Looking at Spain, Portugal and Italy the stats look to be going in EXACTLY the wrong direction!

Spanish Industrial production index………………..… . -5.4% (SA)

Portugal Industry Turnover for July…………………… -3.8% (Domestic sales -8.2%!!!)

Italy 2^nd Quarter 2012 Services Turnover index....….. -6.8%

These are not good numbers for countries stuck in austerity programmes because they show no real growth in their economies and looking at employment and wages the social costs must be at breaking point in other words……..Jedi mind tricks!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Wonder if the Karlsruhe Court rules the ESM is illegal today...........well as far as Germany goes anyway.

Pity we didn't have a designated legal body overseeing our constitution, course we need one of those to start with!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Wonder if the Karlsruhe Court rules the ESM is illegal today...........well as far as Germany goes anyway.

Pity we didn't have a designated legal body overseeing our constitution, course we need one of those to start with!

Legal up to E190B.................

[Malcolm Robinson]

Taking a quick look at Portugal, as the Troika have just done, we can see what seems to be oblivious to the political and financial elite, the austerity measures alone are hurting Portugal's ability to get herself out of the mire. While the leadership seems to have capitulated and agreed to every austerity term demanded by the Troika, so they had access to bailout's, what is happening is a classic example of why austerity is simply just not enough to rebalance economies.

Of course expenditure has to be reduced to sustainable levels but there needs to be a bit of leeway and some investment somewhere or the economy stagnates at best. Without growth austerity by itself is self-defeating and leads to an ever decreasing circle of debt spirals. Portugal has increased VAT as directed but actually seen the take reduce because people can't spend as domestic consumption is crumbling. Classic example of the Laffer Curve. Another example is the tax revenue figures which this year is 3.5% lower than last year. Savings applied to state expenditure during the same period…….0.7%! So 3.5% less money yet only 0.7% cut = more debt needed to stand still!

Over the last year Portugal's economy has shrunk by 3.3% and following her present course I can see that only getting worse. Less revenue = more debt (bailouts) = more austerity imposed = leading to less revenue, so the circle goes on.

The same sort of thing is crippling Greece and we are falling into the similar track. Having been duped into going on a debt laden spending spree, where nothing was put into increasing domestic manufacturing to satisfy that demand, we now have a totally out of sync economy and the need to restructure is urgent. The longer we leave it the more painful that restructuring becomes. We allowed the big players to export the jobs which were needed to service the boom times and now all we can look forward to is more and more cuts because economic growth and therefore revenue growth is probably out of the question.

[Keith Scantlebury]

[Malcolm Robinson]

Read it and weep.................

[Malcolm Robinson]

Keeef1...........you will scare the bairns!

[Malcolm Robinson]

Public spending on unfunded public sector pensions is projected to rise from £4.5 billion in 2010-11 to £13.5 billion 2016-17.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Now this really is the sort of thing Americans should be looking at..........

The American Dream...........yeah right...........its a mirage dreamt up by the top 0.1% to keep the bottom 90% producing for them.

[Malcolm Robinson]

Looks like Spanish Banks are writing their own national debt yields by borrowing from the ECB and buying Spanish debt causing the yields to fall then using it as collateral to borrow more. Now that shouldn't happen, ask Germany who is on the hook for around 22% of ECB debt, but it does make it so much easier for the ECB to come in with unlimited Spanish bond buying next week.

This is the sort of stuff which has pinned Greece to the euro. The likes of French banks own so much of the debt, borrowing from the ECB to buy it, that if Greece defaulted it would take the French majors with it.

Looks like a case of private sector sharp practice being replicated in the public sector now. Well we already have major Ponzi schemes so why not just rip the rule book up, it's not as if anyone is going to be prosecuted is it?