Terrible things that will NOT now happen..

[ex Bedlingtonian]

7 hours ago, Andy (4G) said:

Low of 1.27 now 1.32 looks like an upward trend to me. 1 week of rising pound with only a small blip yesterday. It's a very small sample of course but so is the less than a month from June 23rd you're basing your constant doom mongering on @mercuryg 

Time will tell I guess  

1.33 now.

[mercuryg]

20 hours ago, moe19 said:

Mercuryg excuse my ignorance in financial matters but am I correct in thinking as you are paid in dollars you are now better of  when you exchange from dollar to pound

 

 

Yes, that's right. 

[mercuryg]

13 hours ago, ex Bedlingtonian said:

1.33 now.

And 1.34 this morning.My point still stands. Before the vote I was getting 65p' now I'm getting (today) 74p. Pity I couldn't exchange yesterday. I'm hardly doom-mongering, 4G; I'm responding to a claim I don't live in the real world. I do, when it comes to currency exchange!

[Canny lass]

22 hours ago, threegee said:

1 )  It's now official (from the new Chancellor) that an emergency budget isn't required.

Erring on the side of caution I listened to what he said three times - and three times I heard him say that an emergency budget wasn't needed "YET". In linguistic circles this little, but never the less important,adverb 'yet' usually expresses a degree of uncertainty - an uncertainty which is strengthened when placed in final position in the sentence (as it was here).

So, maybe we shouldn't be to hasty in our judgements - yet.

Darn this biological attention to detail!

 

[mercuryg]

3G I'm sure you told us there are no financial experts; is the new Chancellor an exception?

[threegee]

8 hours ago, Canny lass said:

Erring on the side of caution I listened to what he said three times - and three times I heard him say that an emergency budget wasn't needed "YET". In linguistic circles this little, but never the less important,adverb 'yet' usually expresses a degree of uncertainty - an uncertainty which is strengthened when placed in final position in the sentence (as it was here).

So, maybe we shouldn't be to hasty in our judgements - yet.

Darn this biological attention to detail!

Let's apply a little more of that detail then:-

"Philip Hammond, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, has ruled out an emergency Budget following the UK’s vote to leave the EU."  -- The Telegraph

"In a sign of the panic gripping the remain campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit to the economy will be so large that he will have little choice but to tear apart Conservative manifesto promises in an emergency budget delivered within weeks of an out vote."  -- The Guardian

I wouldn't like to have you driving me. Doubtless someone in the vehicle spotting an emergency road situation would trigger a discussion on linguistics of their screamed warning.

7 hours ago, mercuryg said:

3G I'm sure you told us there are no financial experts; is the new Chancellor an exception?

Like communism, some are more equal than others.  The fact that Hammond is a remainian - or a damascene convert from same - probably means that he was more inclined than not to do some sort of "emergency" tinkering, and he didn't.  Though the Treasury chiefs had doubtless formed a view before he walked through the door.  It's certainly not what they were asking us to believe a few short weeks ago.

Quote

2.60  Due to the responsiveness of financial markets to economic developments,
immediately after a vote to leave the EU, the price of equities is estimated to fall by around
20% relative to the baseline in the shock scenario, and 29% in the severe shock scenario.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/hm-treasury-analysis-the-immediate-economic-impact-of-leaving-the-eu

That's not selective quoting because they simply don't admit to any other "scenario".  In fact prices are up around 10%, so they couldn't even get the direction right, and they ask us to believe that we will all be £4300 poorer in fifteen years time!  Well... on that performance we should all be at least £10,000 better off, and I think it's only prudent that I spend my share now.

Cue for CL's analysis of HMG's use of the word "Immediate".

[mercuryg]

So, basically, what he's saying is there's no need for an emergency budget, because he doesn't want to add to the damage already done? (Btw, $ back to almost 76p this morning, having hit 83p yesterday. Great recovery.)

[mercuryg]

73p yesterday, that should read; 

[threegee]

4 hours ago, mercuryg said:

So, basically, what he's saying is there's no need for an emergency budget, because he doesn't want to add to the damage already done? (Btw, $ back to almost 76p this morning, having hit 83p yesterday. Great recovery.)

What damage would that be specifically?  Are you damaged by having more money in your pocket to spend?  I'm not damaged by the exchange rate because we made sure that we had plenty of reserves for living expenses (well.. we had to when Goro was busy saving the World), Notionally the value of my second home has gone up, and my pension pot is also up, so if needed I could draw more balance the exchange rate. Swings and roundabouts, and absolutely no lost sleep!  It's called the market, and if prices don't move around no one in the market makes any money.

The pound was down because Carney (and the Brussels Broadcasting Corporation) has done nothing but talk the pound down.  But that's not bad because UK industry is now (as previously mentioned) more competitive.  Carney is going to try the age-old management trick of throwing every bit of pessimistic forecasting he can into the mix, and will then claim personal credit when things inevitably turn around.  If he told the truth he mention that he's been powerless to achieve the 2% inflation target, and the bit of inflation injected into the economy by a now properly valued pound will enable him to now achieve that. If the target overruns a bit (they are forecasting 2.7%) it's just a matter of time before it hits target once again as things stabilise.

Back in the real world, the people at Tata Steel have a good chance of not losing their jobs now that our government is taking back the powers to run our own economy, and we will surely see some resurgence in what's left of our fishing industry, etc.etc. If that's damage then we need a lot more of your kind of damage!

[Brian Cross]

Question for 3G when will Brexit begin ?

[mercuryg]

What damage would that be specifically? 

Great question; why don't you ask your mates in the business world? They might be able to enlighten you. Or, of course, you could simply continue to believe that the pound (76p this morning!) is recovering, and everything is hunky dory in the world of finance, as the Guardian tells you.

" we will surely see some resurgence in what's left of our fishing industry, etc.etc."

Why, and how? You do realise we will still be governed by EU quotas, surely? You honestly don't think that we will suddenly have utter freedom? ReallY/

Brian asks: "Question for 3G when will Brexit begin ?"

Even better question, this! There could be several answers, Brian; 1) when someone has the guts to handle it (i.e. never) 2) when Theresa May decides (never) or 3) never,  It won't, because it's a daft thing to do.

 

[threegee]

1 hour ago, Brian Cross said:

Question for 3G when will Brexit begin ?

Brian, the general expectation is "Article 50" will be triggered before Christmas, but no one truly knows just at the moment.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/16/cabinet-clash-over-date-to-trigger-article-50-and-brexit-talks/

I'm not sure if we can complete any other trade deals during the two years negotiation period with the EU.  It's certainly against EU law for us to complete any before we give notice.  I suspect no one even considered this situation before so it's likely to be a grey area.

We all have to hope that May's government uses any grey areas like this to our advantage, because we undoubtedly have a stronger negotiating hand than the EU, and it's difficult to see what they could do about it even if we did start to write our own rules.  They are victims of their own arrogance, because they truly believed that no country would have the financial means or the guts to tear itself away from the EU dependency culture.  Once we are out they will certainly revise the exit procedure to try to make it a lot more difficult for other nations to leave.

[mercuryg]

Before Christmas? Really? I doubt that very much! Our new Lidl will be open by then, but no sign of Article 50. Your optimism is admirable young man!

[threegee]

1 hour ago, mercuryg said:

Before Christmas? Really? I doubt that very much! Our new Lidl will be open by then, but no sign of Article 50. Your optimism is admirable young man!

I didn't say Merc's expectation, I said the general expectation (please read the article).  And... I wouldn't patronise you by calling you "young man" even if I wasn't practically twenty years your senior.

[Canny lass]

On 2016-07-16 at 00:27, threegee said:

I wouldn't like to have you driving me. Doubtless someone in the vehicle spotting an emergency road situation would trigger a discussion on linguistics of their screamed warning

My dear 3g, I really thought that your imagination had reached the limit of its capabilities with the question of “outbreeding”. Clearly, I was wrong! Your imagining that you and I could ever find ourselves in the same vehicle – especially with me as your chauffeur - is surpassed only by your imagining that anyone else would want to be in that vehicle at the same time! It is, therefore, my opinion that, in the event of such a screamed warning, there wouldn't be anybody in the vehicle with whom I could have a sensible discussion. However, it may surprise you to learn that even screams have linguistic properties – ask any mother with a 6 month old baby.

[Canny lass]

On 2016-07-16 at 00:27, threegee said:

"In a sign of the panic gripping the remain campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit to the economy will be so large that he will have little choice but to tear apart Conservative manifesto promises in an emergency budget delivered within weeks of an out vote."  -- The Guardian

I’m not really sure just what it is you wish to illustrate with this quote. I’ve now read this article, from 14 June (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/14/osborne-predicts-30bn-hole-in-public-finance-if-uk-votes-to-leave-eu) and assume it is the article from which the quote was taken (the source given was somewhat incomplete).

While I am aware that many blunders, on occasions howlers, have escaped the lips of George Osborne – and indeed every other, so-called politician during the referendum campaign – I have to point out that this article, in its entirety, does not relate to anything ‘said’ by Mr. Osborne but to something which Mr. Osborne “plans to say” (1st row, words 13-15 of your quote). In other words a reporter is saying what Mr. Osborne will be saying at some anonymous event at some time in the future.

Edited July 18, 2016 by Canny lass

[Canny lass]

On 2016-07-16 at 00:27, threegee said:

Cue for CL's analysis of HMG's use of the word "Immediate"

Sorry to disappoint you! I have no linguistic observations regarding either the form, function or the content of the word - within the given context - which are relevant to the topic under discussion. Better luck next try!

[mercuryg]

9 hours ago, threegee said:

I didn't say Merc's expectation, I said the general expectation (please read the article).  And... I wouldn't patronise you by calling you "young man" even if I wasn't practically twenty years your senior.

It was meant as a humorous aside; besides, you've patronised me plenty other times. I read plenty articles; not all of them agree with this one. Anyway, I'm officially bored of politics, and will henceforth revert to commenting on local issues.

[Canny lass]

On 2016-07-16 at 00:27, threegee said:

"Philip Hammond, the new Chancellor of the Exchequer, has ruled out an emergency Budget following the UK’s vote to leave the EU."  -- The Telegraph

It's not only the Telegraph that's used "ruled out an emergency budget" in its headlines. Most of them, however, say something else in the text. Here's a small selection:

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-36792202

14 July 17, 2016: He added he did not anticipate the need for an emergency Budget as a result of the Brexit vote.

http://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2016/07/14/475139/Britain-Brexit-Philip-Hammond-Chancellor-Exchequer-Theresa-May

Hammond said in his first interview on Thursday morning as the Chancellor of the Exchequer that there will be no “plan for an emergency budget,” following the country’s June 23 vote to leave the European Union.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3689669/New-Chancellor-Philip-Hammond-says-NOT-Brexit-punishment-Budget-threatened-George-Osborne-takes-No-11.html#ixzz4EgTMNDsZ

Mr Hammond said: 'There is no plan for an emergency budget,

My comment: I have no plans for a holiday abroad next month, neither am I anticipating snow in September - does that rule out the possibility of either actually happening? 

[mercuryg]

Btw, dollar at 76p this morning. 

[Canny lass]

4 minutes ago, mercuryg said:

Btw, dollar at 76p this morning. 

Would that be locally?

[mercuryg]

14 minutes ago, Canny lass said:

Would that be locally?

Current exchange rate dollar to pound, CL, nicely favourable for me! Just light of 76p to be precise!!

 

[Canny lass]

22 minutes ago, mercuryg said:

Current exchange rate dollar to pound, CL, nicely favourable for me! Just light of 76p to be precise!!

I was being cheeky, Merc! You said you were reverting to commenting on local issues.

[mercuryg]

I am! That 76p will go towards helping the local economy.

[Canny lass]

the 'loca'l economy - is that the same thing as The Red Lion?