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Just had a leaflet though the door claiming the housing market has turned, 'It's moving again'. This is the second of our illustrious, if not overtly optimistic for reasons of self indulgence, locally based estate agents to proclaim their take on the market. Well here is another take....... Remember that pesky sub prime stuff which caused the financial world to implode and how it wasn't really anything to do with us? Our bankers unknowingly bought into the junk bonds is the current excuse. (BTW the same bonds which used fractal chaos theory to prove their valuations!!!!) Anyway just come across some rather revealing stats on the issue. Only about 44% of the book was for residential properties which means 56% was for commercial, that's shopping centres, shops, offices etc. This stuff is not written the same way as residential mortgages are, commercial ones of this sort are given 3-7 year terms. We are primarily talking USA here but banks worldwide own this paper. So this stuff is close to becoming due for repayment soon and what state is the commercial market in? Look around Bedlington for an example! If it cannot be repaid because of non lets, and remember we are in or supposedly emerging from recession, this will rebound and this time we have no safety net, we have used everything including the kitchen sink to save the residential stuff! How can banks generate capital receipts, impose very tight default terms on lending then fire sale repossessions and as they must now own by far and away the vast proportion of houses in the UK at a time of limited economic opportunities watch out if you are relying on the governments soft touch for mortgagees in default! The markets turning again, yep but it might be another financial tsunami coming our way! I hate to say this but GGG's apocalyptical 'depression not recession' might well be true after all.