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Showing content with the highest reputation on 28/10/11 in all areas

  1. Looking a bit closer at this new EU deal which has been heralded by most all the mainstream media as a 'Euro Saviour' it would seem not only are the exact details missing so is any realistic probability of its success! The increased firepower needed is to be made up of extra contributions, by whom, the countries needing the bailouts? The BRICs have been mentioned but given the recent history of one European fiscal crisis after another I wonder if anyone in their right mind will jump in and provide the huge amount of cash needed. Mr Osborne emerged saying the UK would not be contributing, really, what about our 'aid' to our closest euro neighbour and also the fact that the UK makes up a percentage of any IMF fund. Germany has now capped its losses in the EFSF effectively releasing them of being guarantor of last resort, just what an investor will be looking for, never mind the 20% of guarantee attached to any future losses even after swallowing a 50% loss????? Can this be made any less attractive? Oh yes it can, let's get some leverage on the loans! This is akin to anyone asking the bank for 10K to buy a car and the bank saying don't just take 10K take 50K and buy 2 and have a holiday. At some point in time we arrive at payback time and putting that off is what has got us in the mire in the first place! We can always pay it off with a new credit card of course except that has an ever increasing rate of APR! Underlying a Greek rescue is the 50% haircut banks and bondholders will be asked to take. Accepted by banking spokespersons (IIF) yet still needing ratification by the banks themselves, who as we all know are famously magnanimous, this deal will immediately call into question if not accelerate the processing of the CDS they hold. The question which needs to be asked is why have they bought 'insurance' only to ignore it and accept a 50% write-down? The plan is to half Greek debt by gearing up the loan fund? This is string theory for quantum fiscal mechanics! If anyone thinks Greece will be in a good position with a debt to GDP ratio of 120%, as this plan expects in 2020, then they need to apply to be an EU Commissioner! Greece is already slipping on present austerity commitments and state asset sales, ramping up the expectations to insurmountable heights can only have one conclusion! Looking at the French question, Sarko looks to have lost his fight to get French banks recapitalised by anyone or anything other than France herself. He might be grinning like a cat that swallowed the cream but reality in this case will be like a sledgehammer! When France does have to do its own housekeeping it must ultimately call into question the French AAA rating because the only way they can achieve that will be to sell sovereign assets! Course he might win the Chinese over with his Gallic charm, I would just wonder what will have to be given away to get them to the table in the first place, possibly the next IMF headship? Berlusconi might think he too could look with a degree of surety towards another election but even if the EFSF bazooka, or the SIV as will be created now, was capitalised up to the hilt for all Euro countries in trouble, Italy would need the whole lot for itself. Madness! The whole initiative looks to be a way of extending the crisis to get over impending elections and not just those within Europe! The politicos and their acolytes will now be deployed in Summit after Summit saying they are working on the final, final, final details while the rest of us mere mortals look on in total disbelief.
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