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The Irish Conundrum

tomtom

By tomtom
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tomtom

tomtom

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I see that we are now likely to have to help bailing Ireland out of it's financial mess - who next, Portugal then Italy and what about Spain? Perhaps the ongoing EU debate in this forum is proving that we should not be a member of the EU after all. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against Europe, in fact most of my holidays are spent in European countries and especially France - I like the culture and a lot of their lifesyle aspects but I always come back to the conclusion that we Brits are different!

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Keith Scantlebury

Keith Scantlebury

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I see that we are now likely to have to help bailing Ireland out of it's financial mess - who next, Portugal then Italy and what about Spain? Perhaps the ongoing EU debate in this forum is proving that we should not be a member of the EU after all. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against Europe, in fact most of my holidays are spent in European countries and especially France - I like the culture and a lot of their lifesyle aspects but I always come back to the conclusion that we Brits are different!

We Brits are different. Some may say we are welcoming, generous, charitable, or are we seen to be a soft touch, gullable and open to abuse by those who think this group of small islands is home to that huge pot of gold at the end of a very long rainbow. I am neither a racist or a bigot. Nor would i deny help to those who genuinely need it. There was a reminder of Enoch Powell's 1962 "Rivers of blood" speech on the television today. Can anyone say he was wrong? A very thick line has to be drawn somewhere and very soon or it will be us in the gutter, cap in hand. How quickly will our so called allys come to our aid and bail us out?

Answers on a postcard addressed to Land of the lost boys Never Never Land but please do not expect a rapid response.

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Malcolm Robinson

Malcolm Robinson

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I see that we are now likely to have to help bailing Ireland out of it's financial mess - who next, Portugal then Italy and what about Spain? Perhaps the ongoing EU debate in this forum is proving that we should not be a member of the EU after all. Don't get me wrong, I have nothing against Europe, in fact most of my holidays are spent in European countries and especially France - I like the culture and a lot of their lifesyle aspects but I always come back to the conclusion that we Brits are different!

Typically Irish conundrum, everyone's lining up to help with a bailout and they are saying they don't need it. Well they don't technically now but they very soon will!

I think we are different as a race, but then I think the French are as different, the Spanish, the Greeks, the Germans............

They don't call it national stereotyping for nothing, there has to be traits to base it on........

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threegee

threegee

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Typically Irish conundrum, everyone's lining up to help with a bailout and they are saying they don't need it. Well they don't technically now but they very soon will!

That soon is right now! There has been a flood of capital out of Irish banks over the last few days and they are now teetering. If there isn't a deal right away they are insolvent. Their pretense that the near fully nationalised banks are not the state has fooled no one!

It's crazy that we are joining the queue to bail them out. They've been leeching UK jobs by undercutting our tax system to attract investment, and exploiting our market for their goods, for decades. We paid the price for their prosperity and now we are about to pay the price for their profligacy. Here the French are dead right: equalise your company taxation or no bail-out Ireland; no more free lunch! :angry:

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Malcolm Robinson

Malcolm Robinson

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GGG, I think the Irish are funded until early next year but with recent upward pressure on their bonds because of their banking sector insolvency………….and your right that unequal taxation looks very iffy now! Course our banks hold a lot of their bank debt and their banks hold a lot of our commercial paper debts, explosive situation!

Interestingly there is a populous move afoot in France to start a bank run there, although quite what that will achieve might be best left to our Gallic brothers to answer……..

Maybe if our close friends and allies had rallied around us in 92 when we needed it…………

Seems a bit strange that at a time of massive cuts in public services our Lady of Threadneedle Street is being asked to bail out other countries, and I would expect Portugal and maybe Spain to be hard on the heels of Ireland. The problem is that with the more than apparent lack of anything resembling an innovative approach to this mess the politicos will inevitably start the printing presses up again and allow a debauching of our currency and inflation to make the resulting debts look less than fatal.

I still think we will see a split in the Euro if not a complete retrenchment back to national currencies by members.

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tomtom

tomtom

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Well said Malcolm - roll on the Guilder, the Deutsche Mark and Franc - they used to make continental visits interesting - Oh and by the way, why don't we go back to closed borders?

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threegee

threegee

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GGG, I think the Irish are funded until early next year...

...

I still think we will see a split in the Euro if not a complete retrenchment back to national currencies by members.

That's what they want us to believe, but if there's not a deal this week they are screwed. It's the old "there will be no devaluation", "Northern Rock is as safe as houses" thing; the more they say it the less it's true.

Lenders don't stick around when their funds are mobile and there's a mega-big IF hanging over the solvency of the borrower. Getting your cash back at the earliest possible instant is the only sensible thing to do in those circumstances! Yes, it compounds the problem, but it also concentrates minds. For the greater good banks, and even countries, need the freedom to go bust. If you constantly deny this possibility you only build up even bigger problems for the future.

I think what those "anarchists" would achieve is some sort of return to real value, and an end to a 100% fiat money system. There are lots of things that would have a lot more credibility as currency backing than fresh air and the promises of a profligate government. Joe and Jane Bloggs put their house up as collateral, so why doesn't the government put it's own stock of buildings and land up as first stop? What they effectively do these days is promise more and more of future tax revenue from an already overtaxed populous. That populous doesn't see through the deception, so it seems OK to continue to bribe them with their own future earnings. The day of reckoning can't be postponed indefinitely though, and is likely a lot earlier than anyone can imagine. In Ireland's case it's quite literally tomorrow!

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Malcolm Robinson

Malcolm Robinson

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What else is there to back a national currency these days apart from future tax revenues and inflated house prices and equities? There is talk about getting back to a gold standard but our less than competent ex-Chancellor sold most of our national holdings in what can only be described as an act of financial desperation and done in such as way as to derive least value!

Here's a theory which explains this stuff….. Quantum Saturation Macroeconomics, it a bit heavy mind!

http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/411093-the-economic-fractalist/41783-1-january-2010-quantum-saturation-macroeconomics

I think there are a few considerations regarding populist perceptions which cannot be ignored.

First is the need to self-protect and that may well mean we continue this spiral of asset bubbles and QE irrespective of the actual damage they do to future prosperity. Instigating austerity measures would be as nothing compared to a full breakdown of the system and the political class will have no appetite for that.

Secondly instigating political change through fiscal measures is the wrong way around and for that reason alone the EU and the Euro members will face a backlash from the people it supposedly serves.

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mercuryg

mercuryg

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The situation is one that was seen coming years ago; the Euro was never going to work from day one, as each country has different needs. Someone put it nicely the other day - go and ask eight of your friends, and a few people who you sort of know but are not really sure about, if they fancy opening a joint bank account.

We - the UK - can't bail Ireland out; we're not part of the Eurozone, and we haven't got any money.

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Monsta®

Monsta®

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The situation is one that was seen coming years ago; the Euro was never going to work from day one, as each country has different needs. Someone put it nicely the other day - go and ask eight of your friends, and a few people who you sort of know but are not really sure about, if they fancy opening a joint bank account.

We - the UK - can't bail Ireland out; we're not part of the Eurozone, and we haven't got any money.

your right we dont have any money as we've just gave it to the irish!

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